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Foster welcomes increase in production and services sector output

Figures released today for the period September - November 2011 show that the Northern Ireland unemployment rate fell over the quarter to 6.8%.
~ Wednesday, 18 January 2012

Output from the Northern Ireland Production sector rose by 5.2% from Q2 2011 to Q3 2011 - the UK increased by 0.1% over the same period. Output from the Northern Ireland Index of Services for the third quarter of 2011 showed that output levels rose by 1.9% over the quarter, compared to a 0.7% increase in the UK.

Commenting on the figures, Enterprise Minister Arlene Foster said: “It was encouraging to note the latest labour market figures for Northern Ireland, which showed a rise in employment and a fall in unemployment during the latest quarter. Our current unemployment rate of 6.8% continues to compare favourably to the equivalent rates for the UK (8.4%), European Union (9.8%) and Republic of Ireland (14.3%).

“There was also positive news for our production and service sectors, with economic output increasing in both these sectors during the third quarter of 2011. Production sector output in Northern Ireland increased by 5.2% over the quarter, which was higher than the equivalent rise in the UK (0.1%). Likewise, service sector output in Northern Ireland increased by 1.9% over the quarter, compared to a rise of 0.7% in the UK.”

“However, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits continued to edge upwards and the recent announcement of redundancies by the Ulster Bank provided an unwelcome reminder that the local economy is still experiencing the fall-out from the global financial crisis.”

Arlene Foster continued: “Despite the continued uncertainty in the Eurozone and the fears of a further economic slowdown, I still firmly believe that there are opportunities out there for local businesses to grow. In order to rebalance our economy, it is imperative that more of our businesses take advantage of export markets and exploit the opportunities that exist there.”

“Companies from Northern Ireland have a justified reputation for producing high quality, customer-focused products and services and there is no reason why they cannot compete successfully in the wider global marketplace. I would therefore urge our businesses not to be constrained by demand in local markets, but to speak to one of our trade experts in Invest NI and consider expanding your business into new export markets.”

Further information on the latest labour market figures is available in the Labour Market Statistical Press Release (see http://www.detini.gov.uk/deti-stats-index/stats-labour-market.htm).link to external website

The Index of Services press release can be accessed via http://www.detini.gov.uk/deti-stats-index/stats-surveys/stats-ios.htmlink to external website

The Index of Production press release can be accessed via http://www.detini.gov.uk/deti-stats-index/stats-surveys/stats-index-of-production.htmlink to external website

Notes to editors:

The superscript numbers throughout the bullet points refer to the relevant endnotes.

Labour Force Survey – Unemployment

  • The Northern Ireland seasonally adjusted unemployment rate2, as measured by the Labour Force Survey (LFS), was estimated at 6.8% for the period September - November 2011. This was lower than the rates recorded in the previous quarter (7.6%) and year (7.8%). The Northern Ireland unemployment rate remained below the UK average rate (8.4%) and was also lower than the European Union (9.8%) and Republic of Ireland (14.3%) rates for October 2011.
  • Unadjusted LFS estimates for September - November 2011 show that 37.0% of those unemployed in Northern Ireland have been unemployed for one year or more. This is down 12.8 percentage points from one year ago. They also record the unemployment rate for 18-24 year olds at 18.4% - down 2.5 percentage points over the year.

Claimant Count Unemployment

  • The seasonally adjusted number of people claiming unemployment related benefits5 stood at 60,700 in December 2011 – up 100 (0.2%) from the revised figure for the previous month. The Northern Ireland claimant count rate (6.9%) in December 2011 was the second highest among the twelve UK regions – the UK rate was 5.0%. The latest monthly increase in Northern Ireland claimants (0.2%) was similar to the monthly rise of 0.1% in the UK as a whole. Over the year, the Northern Ireland claimant count has increased by 4.1% (2,400), compared to an increase of 9.8% in the UK. The annual increase in Northern Ireland was the second lowest among the UK regions.

Labour Force Survey – Employment

  • Seasonally adjusted estimates for the period September – November 2011 showed that there were 803,000 people in employment in Northern Ireland. This estimate was up 0.5% on the previous quarter and up 4.6% over the year.

Labour Force Survey – Economic Inactivity

  • The seasonally adjusted number of working age7 persons that were economically inactive increased by 1,000 (0.3%) over the quarter and the corresponding working age economic inactivity rate increased to 27.1% (in September – November 2011). The Northern Ireland inactivity rate (27.1%) remained above the UK average rate (23.1%) and was the highest rate among the twelve UK regions.
  • Unadjusted LFS estimates can provide information on the reason for economic inactivity. In September - November 2011 an estimated 31% of the economically inactive of working age in Northern Ireland were students, 30% were sick/disabled, 21% were looking after the family/home, 12% were retired and 7% were ‘other’ reason.

Redundancies

  • 245 confirmed redundancies8-10 were notified in December 2011, compared to 93 in November 2011 and 193 in December 2010. There has been an 18% decrease in the number of confirmed redundancies over the last year to 31st December 2011 – 1,728 compared to 2,096 in the previous year. There were also 693 proposed redundancies notified during the period mid December 2011 to mid January 2012. This was the highest number of proposed redundancies since April 2009. Please note that since all proposed redundancies do not actually take place, the confirmed total provides a better indication of real job losses.

Production sector output

  • Provisional results from the Index of Production (IOP) for the third quarter of 2011 reported an increase of 5.2% over the quarter and a rise of 8.2% when compared to the same period one year earlier. The equivalent UK figures show that output over the quarter increased by 0.1% and decreased by 1.4% over the year. However, the NI Index remains significantly below (-10.0%) the peak recorded in Q4 2007. The UK index fell by 10.9% over the same time period.

Service sector output

  • Provisional results from the Index of Services for the third quarter of 2011 showed that output levels rose over the quarter by 1.9%, but were down by 0.8% compared to the same quarter one year earlier. The quarterly rise was primarily due to growth in the (i) Wholesale and retail distribution and accommodation and food service activities, (ii) Transport, storage, information and communication and (iii) other services sectors. The Business services and finance sector reported a fall. The UK reported an increase in service sector output of 0.7% over the quarter and 1.3% over the year.
  • This was the second quarter-on-quarter growth recorded after four consecutive quarters of decline, whilst the UK has experienced quarter-on-quarter growth in five of the last six quarters. Over the latest four quarters Northern Ireland service sector output decreased by 3.6% compared to the same four quarters one year earlier. This contrasts with an increase for the UK (1.2%) over the period, compared to the previous four quarters.
  • The index remains some 13.2% below the peak recorded in Q3 2006, whilst the UK index increased by 4.3% in the same time period. The UK Index peaked in Q4 2007.

Endnotes

1. From the 1st April 2011, the responsibility for the collection of data and production of official labour market and economic statistics transferred from the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment to the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (DFP). This transfer mirrored the position in Great Britain where most business surveys and labour market data collection and statistical production have been transferred from the departments with policy responsibilities to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). However, it is important to note that there are no planned changes to the production of economic and labour market statistical publications and outputs as a result of the transfer.

2. The Labour Force Survey (LFS) measure of unemployment used in Northern Ireland labour market statistical publications is consistent with the International Labour Organisation measure. An explanation of the difference between the LFS and Claimant Count measures of unemployment can be found at http://www.detini.gov.uk/deti-stats-index/stats-labour-market/stats-labour-market-unemployment.htmlink to external website

3. The official measure of unemployment is sourced to the LFS and refers to people without a job who were available for work and had either looked for work in the four weeks prior to interview or were waiting to start a job they had already obtained. This definition is consistent with that recommended by the International Labour Office. Unemployment estimates for the European Union and the Republic of Ireland are sourced to EUROSTAT.

4. The figures released today contain data from a number of different sources. The unemployment, employment and economic inactivity rates are sourced to the LFS and refer to the period September - November 2011. It should be noted that the LFS figures are estimates, which are subject to sampling error. This means that the exact figure is likely to be contained in a range surrounding the estimate quoted. For example, the exact number of unemployed persons is 95% likely to fall within +/- 11,000 of the quoted estimate.

5. The Claimant Count measure of unemployment relates to December 2011 and is based on claimant data from Jobs and Benefits Office Administrative Systems.

6. Not all those who register for unemployment benefits meet the criteria for LFS unemployment. Conversely, not all those defined as unemployed in the LFS are eligible for unemployment benefits. Estimates of the numbers unemployed may also differ between the two sources due to timing differences.

7. The ‘working age’ definition, used in the calculation of employment and economic inactivity rates, was changed in August 2010 to include those aged from 16 to 64 for both men and women. Please see link for further details http://www.detini.gov.uk/introduction_of_new_working_age_definition.pdf.link to external website Please note that there are no implications for the headline unemployment rate, which will continue to be based on the economically active population aged 16 and over.

8. Under the Employment Rights (Northern Ireland) Order 1996 companies are only legally required to notify the Department of impending redundancies of 20 or more employees. Any estimates provided are therefore likely to be an underestimate of total job losses, though it is not possible to quantify the extent of the shortfall.

9. Subject to the criteria mentioned above, employers must notify the Department of a) redundancies proposed and b) redundancies confirmed. Where redundancies occur, the confirmed total provides a better indication of real job losses since all proposed redundancies do not actually take place.

10. Redundancies do not necessarily equate to job losses, for example, employees who do not qualify for a redundancy package; those on temporary contracts are not incorporated in redundancy estimates.

11. The Production and Service Sector Output measures relate to the third quarter (July - September) of 2011. These estimates are based on surveys of businesses and estimates of change are subject to sampling error. Figures for a quarter may be revised if more complete information subsequently becomes available.

12. The ‘Other Services’ sector includes education, health and social work, arts, entertainment and recreation and other services.

13. Details of sampling errors, together with more detailed statistical information and definitions of the methodology used, can be found in the Labour Market Report (LMR) bulletin, which is available on the following website: http://www.statistics.detini.gov.uk/ link to external website

14. For media enquiries, please contact DETI Press Office on 028 9052 9604. Outside office hours, please contact the Duty Press Officer via pager number 07699 715 440 and your call will be returned.

15. General information can be obtained from Hugh McNickle, Economic & Labour Market Statistics Branch, on Tel: 028 9052 9439.