Latest labour market and output figures released
Wednesday, 22 April 2009Figures released today showed a continued rise in Northern Ireland’s unemployment figures and a fall in production and service sector output.
The Northern Ireland seasonally adjusted unemployment rate1, as measured by the Labour Force Survey (LFS), was estimated at 5.7% for the period December 2008 to February 2009. This represented a marked increase from the rate of 4.2%, which was recorded in both the previous quarter and in the same period one year ago. The quarterly increase of 1.5 percentage points in the Northern Ireland unemployment rate was the largest increase since the LFS quarterly series began fourteen years ago. However, the Northern Ireland unemployment rate remained below the UK average rate (6.7%) and was fourth lowest of the UK regions. It was also lower than the European Union (7.6%) and Republic of Ireland (8.8%) rates for January 2009.
The more recent claimant count measure of unemployment stood at 43,900 in March 2009, with the number of claimants having increased by 1,900 over the month. Although the latest increase was considerable, it represented the lowest monthly increase in any of the last five months and compared with an increase of 2,900 in the previous monthly period. Over the year to March 2009, the number of unemployed claimants in Northern Ireland has increased by 20,200 (85.2%), which is similar to the equivalent UK increase (84.9%). The majority of the annual increase (13,900) in Northern Ireland has occurred in the last 6 months.
Seasonally adjusted estimates for the period December 2008 to February 2009 also showed that there were 758,000 people in employment in Northern Ireland. This represented an estimated fall of 3.2% in employment levels over the quarter and a decrease of 3.8% over the year.
The seasonally adjusted number of working age persons that were economically inactive increased by an estimated 14,000 over the quarter and the corresponding working age economic inactivity rate increased to 28.5% (in December – February 2009). The Northern Ireland inactivity rate remained considerably higher than the UK average rate (20.7%) and was the highest of the UK regions.
The Department was notified of 629 confirmed redundancies5-8 which took place in March 2009. This compares to 474 in February 2009 and 69 in March 2008. There has been a 124% increase in the number of confirmed redundancies over the last year to 31st March 2009 - 3,817 compared to 1,707 in the previous year.
Commenting on the figures, Enterprise Minister, Arlene Foster said: "The latest labour market results showed a marked increase in the unemployment rate over the most recent quarter. The number of unemployment benefit claimants also increased in March, reflecting the continuing impact of a weak global economy. However, our unemployment rate remained below that of the UK and despite the recent increase, it was still fourth lowest of the UK regions.
“Following the significant job losses announced in April, particularly in the manufacturing sector, I met with the Employment and Learning Minister, Sir Reg Empey and we have agreed to do all that we can to help businesses and local workers plot their way through this challenging recession.
“We will work together to support our private sector, focussing on the provision of practical support and advice as well as implementing training and re-skilling programmes and assistance.
“Our officials are working closely to explore and identify new measures to help alleviate the current pressures being felt in companies across Northern Ireland.”
Provisional seasonally adjusted estimates from the Index of Production (IOP) for the fourth quarter of 2008 showed that output from the production industries fell sharply in real terms (-4.8%) over the quarter. This is the second consecutive quarter in which output has fallen in this sector, after peaking in quarter 2, 2008. Compared to the same quarter one year earlier, overall output also declined by 5.2%. However, production over the last four quarters increased by 1.1% when compared to the previous four quarters.
The UK reported falls in production output of 4.5% over the quarter and 7.5% over the year. The UK Index has now declined for four consecutive quarters, having reached its highest point in quarter 4, 2007. Production over the last four quarters in the UK fell by 2.7% when compared to the previous four quarters.
Over the quarter, ten of the eleven manufacturing sub sectors In Northern Ireland have shown a decrease in output. Those that contributed most to the decline were Machinery & Equipment (down 15.7%) and Rubber & Plastic Products (down 8.7%). The only manufacturing sector to report a growth both over the quarter (up 0.1%) and over the year (up 8.9%) was the Food, Drink and Tobacco sector.
Provisional seasonally adjusted estimates from the experimental Index of Services (IOS) for the fourth quarter of 2008 showed that the service sector in Northern Ireland had decreased by 1.3% over the quarter and by 3.4% compared to the same quarter one year earlier. The UK reported falls in service sector output of 0.7% over the quarter and 0.5% over the year. This was the sixth consecutive quarter in which service sector output in Northern Ireland had fallen. Northern Ireland service sector output decreased by 2.8% over the last four quarters compared with an increase of 1.5% for the UK as a whole.
Over the quarter, the largest contribution to the fall in the Northern Ireland Index was driven by the following sub sectors: Distribution - Wholesale & Retail (-1.9%), Other Services sector (-1.8%) and Hotels & Restaurants (-2.5%). Transport Storage & Communication (0.9%) and Business Services & Finance (0.1%) reported little change over the same period.
Reflecting on the Index of Production and Index of Services, Arlene Foster said: “Output in the last quarter of 2008 was down in both the production and service sectors. The sharp fall in production sector output was the second successive quarter in which output declined. While the decline in this sector has come later than in the UK as a whole, we are now seeing the effect of reduced demand spreading across the economy.
“Maintaining competitiveness by controlling costs is important but companies also need to engage existing and potential customers to identify their changing needs, in the current economic climate. The challenge is to examine products and services to identify those which have the best prospects, even in difficult economic conditions. Flexible businesses perceive not just threats in an economic downturn, but opportunities that arise from the changes that are occurring.
“I want to reiterate that my Executive colleagues and this department are determined to do everything we can to limit the impact of the economic downturn. Invest NI offer a range of programmes to check businesses’ strengths and weaknesses to better position them for future growth. I would encourage companies to avail of these services to help deliver a competitive advantage in these difficult times.”
Notes to Editors:
1. The official measure of unemployment is sourced to the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and refers to people without a job who were available for work and had either looked for work in the four weeks prior to interview or were waiting to start a job they had already obtained. This definition is consistent with that recommended by the International Labour Office. Unemployment estimates for the European Union and the Republic of Ireland are sourced to EUROSTAT.
2. The figures released today contain data from a number of different sources. The unemployment, employment and economic inactivity rates are sourced to the LFS and refer to the period December 2008 to January 2009. It should be noted that the LFS figures are estimates, which are subject to sampling error. This means that the exact figure is likely to be contained in a range surrounding the estimate quoted. For example, the exact number of unemployed persons is 95% likely to fall within +/- 9,000 of the quoted estimate.
3. The Claimant Count measure of unemployment relates to March 2009 and is based on claimant data from Jobs and Benefits Office Administrative Systems.
4. Not all those who register for unemployment benefits meet the criteria for LFS unemployment. Conversely, not all those defined as unemployed in the LFS are eligible for unemployment benefits. Estimates of the numbers unemployed may also differ between the two sources due to timing differences.
5. Under the Employment Rights (Northern Ireland) Order 1996 companies are only legally required to notify the Department of impending redundancies of 20 or more employees. Any estimates provided are therefore likely to be an underestimate of total job losses, though it is not possible to quantify the extent of the shortfall.
6. Subject to the criteria mentioned above, employers must notify the Department of a) redundancies proposed and b) redundancies confirmed. Where redundancies occur, the confirmed total provides a better indication of real job losses since all proposed redundancies do not actually take place.
7. Redundancies are recorded by the department once we receive notification from companies in accordance with Employment Rights Order 1996 (Note 5), within a predetermined time frame. Please note, not all media reports of redundancies are included in the official statistics until the department receives formal notification.
8. Redundancies do not necessarily equate to job losses, for example, employees who do not qualify for a redundancy package; those on temporary contracts are not incorporated in redundancy estimates.
9. The Production and Service Sector Output measures relate to the 4th quarter (October-December) of 2008. These estimates are based on surveys of businesses and estimates of change are subject to sampling error. Figures for a quarter may be revised if more complete information subsequently becomes available.
10. The ‘Other Services Sector’ includes - Education, Health and Social Work and Other community, Social and Personal Services activities.
11. Details of sampling errors, together with more detailed statistical information and definitions of the methodology used, can be found in the Labour Market Report (LMR), Index of Production and Index of Services bulletins, which are available on the following weblinks:
The statistical press release for the new Labour Market Report can be found on the DETI website
The statistical press release for the new Index of Production figures can be found on the DETI website
The statistical press release for the new Index of Services figures can be found on the DETI website at:
12. For media enquiries, please contact DETI Press Office on 028 9052 9297. Outside office hours, please contact the Duty Press Officer via pager number 07699 715 440 and your call will be returned.
13. General information can be obtained from Martin Monaghan, DETI Statistics Research Branch, on Tel: 028 9052 9421.
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