Unemployed claimants increased and job numbers fell

Figures released today showed the largest monthly increase in unemployment benefit claimants in almost 30 years.

A large fall in Northern Ireland jobs was also recorded between June and September 2008.

The number of people claiming unemployment related benefits increased by 3,100 during the latest month to 34,100 in November 2008. This increase represented the largest monthly increase in twenty eight years (since October 1980). While the construction industry accounted for approximately one third of the rise in claimants in November, job losses have been more widely spread among other sectors this month. The number of unemployed claimants in Northern Ireland in November 2008 (34,100) was the same as the level reported five years ago (34,100 in November 2003).

Seasonally adjusted estimates from the Quarterly Employment Survey showed that there were 718,370 employee jobs filled in September 2008. This represented an estimated net decrease of 6,990 over the quarter and a fall of 4,420 over the year. The decrease over the quarter was driven by falls in service sector (-4,280), construction sector (-1,600) and manufacturing sector jobs (-1,120). It represented the largest quarterly decrease in the seasonally adjusted employee jobs series since December 1980.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Northern Ireland, as measured by the Labour Force Survey (LFS), was estimated at 4.3% for the period August - October 2008. This was essentially unchanged from the rate of 4.4% recorded last quarter, but was up from the rate of 4.1% recorded in the same period one year ago. The Northern Ireland unemployment rate remained below the UK average (6.0%) and was joint lowest among the UK regions. It also compared favourably to the European Union (7.0%) and Republic of Ireland (6.6%) rates for September 2008.

The latest seasonally adjusted working age economic inactivity rate in Northern Ireland (26.8%) was down slightly from the rate for the previous quarter (26.9%). However, the Northern Ireland rate (26.8%) remained significantly higher than the UK average (20.9%) and continued to be the highest of all the UK regions.

Although the latest fall in employee jobs was the largest in twenty eight years, the unemployment rate when records began in 1984 (16.8%) was considerably higher than the current rate (4.3%).

Commenting on the figures, Enterprise Minister Arlene Foster said: “The latest figures show that the global downturn is making an impact in Northern Ireland. This is the largest monthly increase in the registered unemployed since 1980. Third quarter results also showed the largest fall in employee jobs in nearly thirty years. This is not unexpected. Although there was marginal jobs growth earlier this year, the pressure on jobs has been building for some time.

“The sharp decline in employee jobs and the marked increase in claimants show that the pace of change has quickened in recent months. There are also signs that the construction led downturn is now spreading into other areas of the economy, with sectors such as manufacturing facing increased difficulties.

“However, it is important to keep these changes in perspective. While the latest figures showed a sharp contraction in employee jobs over the quarter, the fall was from an historic high and our unemployment rate was still the lowest of the UK regions. It was also well below the European Union average. While there are undoubtedly difficult times ahead, Northern Ireland is not unique in having to face these challenges.

“The best way for businesses to respond to difficult trading conditions is to increase their competitiveness. Businesses that are proactive in managing change will fare best. This is a time to address weaknesses and build on strengths such as the current exchange rate which represents an opportunity for Northern Ireland exporters to increase their market share.”

Notes to Editors:

1. The official measure of unemployment is sourced to the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and refers to people without a job who were available for work and had either looked for work in the four weeks prior to interview or were waiting to start a job they had already obtained. This definition is consistent with that recommended by the International Labour Office. Unemployment estimates for the European Union and the Republic of Ireland are sourced to EUROSTAT.
2. The figures released today contain data from a number of different sources. The employee jobs figures are sourced to the Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) and refer to the position at the 1st September 2008 (with the quarterly change measured between June and September 2008). The QES figures are estimates that are subject to sampling error.
3. The unemployment and economic inactivity rates are sourced to the LFS and refer to the period August - October 2008. It should be noted that the LFS figures are estimates, which are subject to sampling error. This means that the exact figure is likely to be contained in a range surrounding the estimate quoted. For example, the exact number of unemployed persons is 95% likely to fall within +/- 8,000 of the quoted estimate.
4. The Claimant Count measure of unemployment relates to November 2008 and is based on claimant data from Jobs and Benefits Office Administrative Systems.
5. Not all those who register for unemployment benefits meet the criteria for LFS unemployment. Conversely, not all those defined as unemployed in the LFS are eligible for unemployment benefits. Estimates of the numbers unemployed may also differ between the two sources due to timing differences.
6. Details of sampling errors, together with more detailed statistical information and definitions of the methodology used, can be found in the Labour Market Report (LMR) bulletin
7. For media enquiries, please contact DETI Press Office on 028 9052 9297. Outside office hours, please contact the Duty Press Officer via pager number 07699 715 440 and your call will be returned.
8. General information can be obtained from Martin Monaghan, DETI Statistics Research Branch, on Tel: 028 9052 9421.