Latest labour market figures released

Figures released today recorded a slight fall in the Northern Ireland unemployment rate during the latest quarter.

The number of jobs fell between June and September 2009, with job losses recorded across all main sectors.

The Northern Ireland seasonally adjusted unemployment rate2, as measured by the Labour Force Survey (LFS), was estimated at 6.6% for the period August to October 2009. This was slightly lower than the rate of 6.8% recorded in the previous quarter, but was up from the rate of 4.4% recorded in the same period one year ago. The Northern Ireland unemployment rate remained below the UK average (7.9%) and was the joint second lowest rate among the 12 UK regions. It was also lower than the European Union (9.2%) and Republic of Ireland (13.0%) rates for September 2009.

The seasonally adjusted number of people claiming unemployment related benefits4 stood at 54,000 (6.2% of the workforce) in November 2009 – an increase of 200 (0.4%) over the month. This increase, and the revised monthly increase of 100 for October 2009, is relatively small when compared to the average monthly increase of 1,600 during the last year. Nevertheless, Northern Ireland was one of only two UK regions to record an increase in claimant levels in November 2009 - the UK as a whole recorded a decrease of 0.4%. Over the year, the Northern Ireland claimant count has increased by 55.6% (19,300). The equivalent increase in the UK was 49.0%, with the Northern Ireland annual increase ranking second highest of the UK regions.

Seasonal adjusted estimates from the Quarterly Employment Survey showed that there were 701,730 employee jobs filled in September 2009. This represented an estimated net decrease of 5,010 over the quarter and a fall of 25,600 over the year. The decrease over the quarter was driven by falls in the Manufacturing sector (-1,540), the Service sector (-1,640) and Construction sector jobs (-1,720). This was the fifth successive quarterly decrease in the seasonally adjusted employee jobs series (employee jobs decreased by 6,030 over the previous quarterly period).

The seasonally adjusted number of working age persons that were economically inactive decreased by an estimated 12,000 over the quarter and the corresponding working age economic inactivity rate decreased to 28.2% (in August - October 2009). However, the Northern Ireland inactivity rate (28.2%) remained considerably higher than the UK average rate (21.0%) and was the highest of the 12 UK regions.

The Department was notified of 393 confirmed redundancies7-9 which took place in November 2009. This compared to 219 in October 2009 and 262 in November 2008. There has been a 94% increase in the number of confirmed redundancies over the last year to 30th November 2009 – 4,624 compared to 2,383 in the previous year.

Commenting on the figures, Enterprise Minister, Arlene Foster said: “The unemployment rate has remained relatively constant over the most recent period. However, third quarter employee job figures indicated that the Construction, Services and Manufacturing sectors all reported continuing job losses. The number of confirmed redundancies has also nearly doubled this year, compared to last.

“The ‘levelling off’ of unemployment figures in recent months is welcome news for the NI labour market. However, it is difficult to say whether this is a pause in the jobless figure or if it represents the turning point that will eventually see the number of claimants fall.

“The view of most economic commentators is that there will be a time lag before any recovery in business confidence is translated into jobs growth. The labour market results in the next few months will let us know if this is the case.”

Further information on the latest labour market figures is available in the Labour Market Statistical Press Release (see http://www.detini.gov.uk/deti-stats-index/stats-labour-market.htm).

Notes to editors:

1. The Labour Force Survey (LFS) measure of unemployment used in DETI labour market statistical publications is consistent with the International Labour Organisation measure. An explanation of the measures of unemployment can be found at the DETI website.
2. The official measure of unemployment is sourced to the LFS and refers to people without a job who were available for work and had either looked for work in the four weeks prior to interview or were waiting to start a job they had already obtained. This definition is consistent with that recommended by the International Labour Office. Unemployment estimates for the European Union and the Republic of Ireland are sourced to EUROSTAT.
3. The figures released today contain data from a number of different sources. The unemployment, employment and economic inactivity rates are sourced to the LFS and refer to the period August to October 2009. It should be noted that the LFS figures are estimates, which are subject to sampling error. This means that the exact figure is likely to be contained in a range surrounding the estimate quoted. For example, the exact number of unemployed persons is 95% likely to fall within +/- 10,000 of the quoted estimate.
4. The Claimant Count measure of unemployment relates to November 2009 and is based on claimant data from Jobs and Benefits Office Administrative Systems.
5. Not all those who register for unemployment benefits meet the criteria for LFS unemployment. Conversely, not all those defined as unemployed in the LFS are eligible for unemployment benefits. Estimates of the numbers unemployed may also differ between the two sources due to timing differences.
6. The employee jobs figures are sourced to the Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) and refer to the position at the 7th September 2009 (with the quarterly change measured between June 2009 and September 2009). The QES figures are estimates that are subject to sampling error.
7. Under the Employment Rights (Northern Ireland) Order 1996 companies are only legally required to notify the Department of impending redundancies of 20 or more employees. Any estimates provided are therefore likely to be an underestimate of total job losses, though it is not possible to quantify the extent of the shortfall.
8. Subject to the criteria mentioned above, employers must notify the Department of a) redundancies proposed and b) redundancies confirmed. Where redundancies occur, the confirmed total provides a better indication of real job losses since all proposed redundancies do not actually take place.
9. Redundancies do not necessarily equate to job losses, for example, employees who do not qualify for a redundancy package; those on temporary contracts are not incorporated in redundancy estimates.
10. Details of sampling errors, together with more detailed statistical information and definitions of the methodology used, can be found in the Labour Market Report (LMR) bulletin, which is available on the following website.
11. For media enquiries, please contact DETI Press Office on 028 9052 9297. Outside office hours, please contact the Duty Press Officer via pager number 07699 715 440 and your call will be returned.
12. General information can be obtained from Martin Monaghan, DETI Statistics Research Branch, on Tel: 028 9052 9421.