Latest labour market and economy figures released

Figures released today for the period March - May 2010 recorded a rise in the Northern Ireland unemployment rate to 7.0%.

More recent figures for June 2010 showed an increase of 600 over the month in the number of unemployment benefit claimants.

Output from both the Northern Ireland Services (+1.2%) and Production sectors (+1.5%) rose during the first quarter of 2010.

Commenting on the figures, Enterprise Minister, Arlene Foster said: “It is encouraging to note the increased output in the Northern Ireland Service sector during the first quarter of 2010. This is the second consecutive quarterly increase in the series and reflected the improved performance of the Business Services and Finance sector in particular.

“The Northern Ireland Production sector also showed an increase in output of 1.5% in the first quarter of 2010. This represented the first increase in the revised series for almost two years and compared to an increase of 1.0% in UK output during the same period.

“However, more recent figures for the Northern Ireland labour market showed a further rise in unemployment levels. Figures for June 2010 record a rise of 600 over the month in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits in Northern Ireland. This is disappointing news, given that claimant levels had remained relatively static during the previous five months. I am also aware that unemployment numbers continued to fall in the UK as a whole.

“It is clear that the Northern Ireland economy is likely to face further pressures. The public sector spending cuts, announced by the Chancellor in the Emergency Budget, will no doubt have an impact on the timing and strength of the recovery in Northern Ireland.

“It is therefore increasingly important to have an outward looking private sector that is flexible, responsive and export focused, which seeks growth opportunities across the global economy.

“This is a key focus for the Executive sub-committee on the economy. I chaired the second meeting of the sub-committee on Thursday, 8 July and good progress has been made in agreeing an overarching framework for an economic strategy. This will be a priority over the coming months. We aim to consult on this framework and the wider challenges facing the economy following further progress made by departments over the Summer.

“I have made clear that it is particularly important, even during a period of budget cuts, that we retain our focus on developing the conditions to promote private sector growth. This is the engine of recovery on which we must increasingly rely.”

Further information on the latest labour market figures is available in the Labour Market Statistical Press Release.

The Index of Services press release can be accessed via http://www.detini.gov.uk/deti-stats-index/stats-surveys/stats-ios.htm

The Index of Production press release can be accessed via http://www.detini.gov.uk/deti-stats-index/stats-surveys/stats-index-of-production.htm

Notes to Editors:

The superscript numbers throughout the bullet points refer to the relevant endnotes.

• The Northern Ireland seasonally adjusted unemployment rate2, as measured by the Labour Force Survey (LFS), was estimated at 7.0% for the period March – May 2010. This represented an increase from the rate of 6.4%, which was recorded in both the previous quarter and in the same period one year ago. However, the Northern Ireland unemployment rate remained below the UK average (7.8%) and was the fourth lowest rate among the twelve UK regions. It was also below the European Union (9.7%) and Republic of Ireland (13.2%) rates for April 2010.
• The seasonally adjusted number of people claiming unemployment related benefits4 stood at 56,100 in June 2010 – up 600 (1.1%) over the month. This was the highest increase in the level of unemployment benefit claimants among the twelve UK regions, with the UK as a whole recording a monthly decrease of 1.4%. Over the year, the Northern Ireland claimant count has increased by 13.6% (6,700), compared to a decrease of 6.4% in the UK.
• Seasonally adjusted estimates for the period March - May 2010 showed that there were 776,000 people in employment in Northern Ireland. This estimate was up 0.3% from the previous quarter and increased by 3.9% over the year.
• The seasonally adjusted number of working age persons that were economically inactive decreased by an estimated 9,000 over the quarter and the corresponding working age economic inactivity rate decreased to 26.4% (in March - May 2010). However, the Northern Ireland inactivity rate (26.4%) remained considerably higher than the UK average rate (21.3%) and was the highest of the twelve UK regions.
• Unadjusted LFS estimates can provide information on the reason for economic inactivity. In March - May 2010 an estimated 33% of the economically inactive of working age in Northern Ireland were students, 29% were sick/disabled, 24% were looking after the family/home, 6% were retired and 8% were ‘other’ reason.
• The Department was notified of 135 confirmed redundancies7-9 which took place in June 2010. This compared to 91 in May 2010 and 280 in June 2009. There has been a 36% decrease in the number of confirmed redundancies over the last year to 30th June 2010 – 2,994 compared to 4,697 in the previous year.
• Provisional seasonally adjusted estimates from the Index of Production (IOP) for the first quarter of 2010 showed that output from the production industries increased over the quarter (+1.5%), but fell over the year (-1.9%). The UK reported a rise in production output over the quarter of 1.0%, while output was unchanged over the year.
• Over the quarter the index for the following broad subsector industries reported increases; Other Manufacturing (4.5%), Engineering & Allied Industries (1.6%) and Leather, Textiles & Textile Products (5.1%). The other broad manufacturing industries reported a fall over the same period; Chemical & Chemical Products (-3.8%), Food, Drink & Tobacco (-0.5%) and Basic Metals & Fabricated Metal Products (-1.1%).
• Provisional results from the Index of Services for the first quarter of 2010 showed that output levels rose over the quarter by 1.2% and decreased by 2.0% compared to the same quarter one year earlier. The UK reported an increase in service sector output of 0.3% over the quarter and a decrease of 0.1% over the year.
• Service sector output in Northern Ireland has increased in three of the last five quarters. Northern Ireland service sector output decreased by 3.9% over the last four quarters when compared to the previous four quarters (compared with a decrease of 2.7% for the UK as a whole). This was the eleventh consecutive quarter in which the overall services index in Northern Ireland has shown a year on year fall.
• Distribution - Wholesale & Retail in Northern Ireland has shown a second quarterly increase, while Business Services & Finance has reported its first quarterly increase after five consecutive quarterly decreases. All of the sub sectors increased over the quarter with the exception of Transport, Storage and Communication (-1.5%) - Business Services & Finance (2.4%), Other Services (2.6%), Hotels & Restaurants (2.9%) and Distribution – Wholesale and Retail (0.5%).

Endnotes:

1. The Labour Force Survey (LFS) measure of unemployment used in DETI labour market statistical publications is consistent with the International Labour Organisation measure. An explanation of the difference between the LFS and Claimant Count measures of unemployment can be found on the DETI website.
2. The official measure of unemployment is sourced to the LFS and refers to people without a job who were available for work and had either looked for work in the four weeks prior to interview or were waiting to start a job they had already obtained. This definition is consistent with that recommended by the International Labour Office. Unemployment estimates for the European Union and the Republic of Ireland are sourced to EUROSTAT.
3. The figures released today contain data from a number of different sources. The unemployment, employment and economic inactivity rates are sourced to the LFS and refer to the period March - May 2010. It should be noted that the LFS figures are estimates, which are subject to sampling error. This means that the exact figure is likely to be contained in a range surrounding the estimate quoted. For example, the exact number of unemployed persons is 95% likely to fall within +/- 10,000 of the quoted estimate.
4. The Claimant Count measure of unemployment relates to June 2010 and is based on claimant data from Jobs and Benefits Office Administrative Systems.
5. Not all those who register for unemployment benefits meet the criteria for LFS unemployment. Conversely, not all those defined as unemployed in the LFS are eligible for unemployment benefits. Estimates of the numbers unemployed may also differ between the two sources due to timing differences.
6. Under the Employment Rights (Northern Ireland) Order 1996 companies are only legally required to notify the Department of impending redundancies of 20 or more employees. Any estimates provided are therefore likely to be an underestimate of total job losses, though it is not possible to quantify the extent of the shortfall.
7. Subject to the criteria mentioned above, employers must notify the Department of a) redundancies proposed and b) redundancies confirmed. Where redundancies occur, the confirmed total provides a better indication of real job losses since all proposed redundancies do not actually take place.
8. Redundancies do not necessarily equate to job losses, for example, employees who do not qualify for a redundancy package; those on temporary contracts are not incorporated in redundancy estimates.
9. The Production and Service Sector Output measures relate to the 1st quarter (January - March) of 2010. These estimates are based on surveys of businesses and estimates of change are subject to sampling error. Figures for a quarter may be revised if more complete information subsequently becomes available.
10. The ‘Other Manufacturing Sector’ includes – Wood and Wood products, Pulp, Paper and Printing products, Rubber and Plastic products, Non-metallic Mineral products, Refined Petroleum products and Manufacturing not elsewhere classified.
11. The ‘Other Services Sector’ includes - Education, Health and Social Work and Other community, Social and Personal Services activities.
12. Details of sampling errors, together with more detailed statistical information and definitions of the methodology used, can be found in the Labour Market Report (LMR) bulletin.
13. For media enquiries, please contact DETI Press Office on 028 9052 9297. Outside office hours, please contact the Duty Press Officer via pager number 07699 715 440 and your call will be returned.
14. General information can be obtained from Martin Monaghan, DETI Statistics Research Branch, on Tel: 028 9052 9421.