Latest labour market figures released
Wednesday, 14 October 2009Figures released today recorded a further increase in unemployment levels in Northern Ireland.
Output from the Northern Ireland service sector was relatively unchanged over the latest quarter, but output from the production sector fell once again.
The Northern Ireland seasonally adjusted unemployment rate2, as measured by the Labour Force Survey (LFS), was estimated at 7.1% for the period June to August 2009. This represented an increase from the rate of 6.3% recorded in the previous quarter and was also up from the rate of 4.3% recorded in the same period one year ago. This annual increase represented the largest increase in unemployment since the LFS seasonally adjusted series began in 1995 and was the third highest increase among the UK regions. However, the Northern Ireland unemployment rate remained below the UK average (7.9%) and was the equal fourth lowest rate among the UK regions. It was also lower than the European Union (9.0%) and Republic of Ireland (12.5%) rates for July 2009.
The more recent claimant count measure of unemployment stood at 53,800 in September 2009, with the number of claimants having increased by 1,100 over the month.
Although this was the smallest increase for fifteen months in Northern Ireland, it represented the largest percentage increase (2.1%) of the UK regions (the overall UK increase was 1.3%). Over the year to September 2009, the number of unemployed claimants in Northern Ireland increased by 23,800 (79.3%), which was higher than the equivalent UK increase (70.0%).
Seasonally adjusted estimates for the period June - August 2009 showed that there were 745,000 people in employment in Northern Ireland. This estimate was essentially unchanged from the previous quarter (+0.1%), but was down 5.4% over the year.
The seasonally adjusted number of working age persons that were economically inactive decreased by an estimated 8,000 over the quarter and the corresponding working age economic inactivity rate decreased to 29.3% (in June - August 2009). However, the Northern Ireland inactivity rate (29.3%) remained considerably higher than the UK average rate (21.0%) and was the highest of the UK regions.
The Department was notified of 379 confirmed redundancies (6-8) which took place in September 2009. This compared to 247 in August 2009 and 202 in September 2008. There has been a 178% increase in the number of confirmed redundancies over the last year to 30th September 2009 – 4,993 compared to 1,798 in the previous year.
Commenting on the figures, Enterprise Minister, Arlene Foster said: “It is disappointing to note the latest rise in unemployment levels, but not surprising given the continuing impact of the global recession. This was the largest annual increase in unemployment since the LFS series began in 1995. The imperative for us in government is to respond in the right way to these short-term job losses to ensure that they don’t become more structural or long-term in nature.”
“Our focus must rest on creating a high wage and high value employment economy in line with the recommendations of the Independent Review of Economic Policy, which was published last month. I would urge all stakeholders to examine the report’s recommendations and respond to the consultation process. In this way we can ensure that we are well placed to address the economic challenges facing Northern Ireland.”
Provisional seasonally adjusted estimates from the Index of Production (IOP) for the second quarter of 2009 showed that output from the production industries fell in real terms over the quarter (-2.4%) and over the year (-10.9%). This is the fifth consecutive quarter in which output has fallen in this sector, after peaking in quarter 1, 2008. The UK reported falls in production output of 0.6% over the quarter and 11.7% over the year. The UK Index has declined for six consecutive quarters.
Over the quarter the index for the following broad subsector industries reported increases; Food, Drink & Tobacco (0.8%), Chemical & Chemical Products (1.7%) and Leather, Textiles & Textile Products (2.0%). Over the same period the following recorded decreases; Engineering & Allied Industries (-9.2%), Basic Metals & Fabricated Metal Products (-11.7) and Other Manufacturing (-1.6%).
Provisional results from the Index of Services for the second quarter of 2009 show that output levels were relatively flat over the quarter (with a slight decrease of 0.1% reported) and fell by 2.0% compared to the same quarter one year earlier. The UK reported falls in service sector output of 0.6% over the quarter and 4.2% over the year.
Service sector output in Northern Ireland has fallen in seven of the last eight quarters. Northern Ireland service sector output decreased by 5.2% over the last four quarters when compared to the previous four quarters (compared with a decrease of 1.9% for the UK as a whole). However, revised figures for Quarter one 2009 indicate that there was an increase of 1.0% over the quarter. This was the first quarterly increase reported in the last seven quarters and is in line with the slowdown in the annual rate of contraction. This improvement has not been reflected in the UK figures although the NI index peaked (Quarter two 2007) one year earlier than the UK. The UK as a whole has now reported four consecutive quarters of decline.
This was the first quarter in which Distribution - Wholesale & Retail has shown an annual increase (1.0%) after six consecutive quarters of annual decline. It was the third consecutive quarter in which Business Services & Finance (-5.6%) has reported a decrease. Over the quarter there was an overall decline in the index, with the following sub sectors contributing most to the fall - Business Services & Finance (-5.6%) and Hotels & Restaurants (-2.1%).
Commenting on the figures, Enterprise Minister, Arlene Foster said: “The production sector has proved particularly vulnerable to the deterioration in credit markets and global trading conditions. The annual fall in the production index in Northern Ireland (-10.9%) has been similar to that recorded for the rest of the UK (-11.7%) and this underlines the difficulties that manufacturing companies have been facing.
“The Index of Services did provide some indication of an improvement in the Northern Ireland economy, with revised figures showing an increase in service sector output during the first quarter of 2009. However, this improvement has not continued and figures show that output remained flat during the second quarter of the year. These results indicate that economic recovery will not be a straightforward process and it could be some time before we see the steady growth recorded in previous years.
“However, I would continue to urge companies to investigate all potential markets and concentrate on providing high quality products and services that will give them a competitive advantage. Customer focused, innovative businesses will no doubt reap the biggest rewards as economic conditions improve.”
Notes to Editors:
1. Some individuals have expressed views about the measure of unemployment used in DETI labour market statistical publications. Official statisticians have indicated that the use of the International Labour Organisation measure is consistent with international definitions. They have also advised that in view of interest in the rates of change in unemployment across the UK regions it would be appropriate to include some additional information on this subject in Table 3 of the Statistical Press Releasehttp://www.detini.gov.uk/cgi-bin/downdoc?id=4820
2. The official measure of unemployment is sourced to the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and refers to people without a job who were available for work and had either looked for work in the four weeks prior to interview or were waiting to start a job they had already obtained. This definition is consistent with that recommended by the International Labour Organisation. Unemployment estimates for the European Union and the Republic of Ireland are sourced to EUROSTAT.
3. The figures released today contain data from a number of different sources. The unemployment, employment and economic inactivity rates are sourced to the LFS and refer to the period June - August 2009. It should be noted that the LFS figures are estimates, which are subject to sampling error. This means that the exact figure is likely to be contained in a range surrounding the estimate quoted. For example, the exact number of unemployed persons is 95% likely to fall within +/- 10,000 of the quoted estimate.
4. The Claimant Count measure of unemployment relates to September 2009 and is based on claimant data from Jobs and Benefits Office Administrative Systems.
5. Not all those who register for unemployment benefits meet the criteria for LFS unemployment. Conversely, not all those defined as unemployed in the LFS are eligible for unemployment benefits. Estimates of the numbers unemployed may also differ between the two sources due to timing differences.
6. Under the Employment Rights (Northern Ireland) Order 1996 companies are only legally required to notify the Department of impending redundancies of 20 or more employees. Any estimates provided are therefore likely to be an underestimate of total job losses, though it is not possible to quantify the extent of the shortfall.
7. Subject to the criteria mentioned above, employers must notify the Department of a) redundancies proposed and b) redundancies confirmed. Where redundancies occur, the confirmed total provides a better indication of real job losses since all proposed redundancies do not actually take place.
8. Redundancies do not necessarily equate to job losses, for example, employees who do not qualify for a redundancy package; those on temporary contracts are not incorporated in redundancy estimates.
9. The Production and Service Sector Output measures relate to the 2nd quarter (April - June) of 2009. These estimates are based on surveys of businesses and estimates of change are subject to sampling error. Figures for a quarter may be revised if more complete information subsequently becomes available.
10. The ‘Other Manufacturing Sector’ includes – Wood and Wood products, Pulp, Paper and Printing products, Rubber and Plastic products, Non-metallic Mineral products, Refined Petroleum products and Manufacturing not elsewhere classified.
11. The ‘Other Services Sector’ includes - Education, Health and Social Work and Other community, Social and Personal Services activities.
12. Details of sampling errors, together with more detailed statistical information and definitions of the methodology used, can be found in the Labour Market Report (LMR) bulletin, which is available on the following website: http://www.statistics.detini.gov.uk/
13. The consultation period in relation to the Independent Review of Economic Policy runs from 5 October 2009 until 5pm on Monday 16 November 2009. The report is available from the DETI website (www.detini.gov.uk) and responses to the consultation should be sent to: Jacqui Rose Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment Strategic Planning, Economics and Statistics Division Netherleigh Massey Avenue Belfast BT4 2JP Email: economics@detini.gov.uk
14. For media enquiries, please contact DETI Press Office on 028 9052 9297. Outside office hours, please contact the Duty Press Officer via pager number 07699 715 440 and your call will be returned.
15. General information can be obtained from Martin Monaghan, DETI Statistics Research Branch, on Tel: 028 9052 9421.
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