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Statistics news release - Population set to rise by around 10,000 persons each year

The Northern Ireland population is projected to rise by 6% over the next 10 years (2010-2020). The population is projected to reach 1.910 million by 2020, according to new figures released today by the Statistics and Research Agency.
Wednesday, 26 October 2011

The figures show that:

  • the projections indicate a marked increase in the size of the older population. The number of older people (those aged 65 or more) is projected to increase by over a quarter in the next ten years (2010-2020), whilst the population aged 85 or more is projected to rise by 51% in the same period;
  • the projected population increase will be due to more births than deaths in Northern Ireland. Between 2010 and 2020 it is projected that there will be 107 thousand more births than deaths, accounting for over 95% of population growth; and
  • the population is projected to rise from just under 1.8 million in 2010 to 1.9 million in 2019 and 2 million in 2034.

Dr David Marshall, from the Statistics and Research Agency, noted: “Over the next 10 years, the population is set to grow by around 10,000 persons each year. The population will also continue to age, with the population aged 85 and over set to double within two decades. Understanding and responding to these trends will be important for public services in Northern Ireland.”

Notes to editors:

  1. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) produces national population projections for the United Kingdom and constituent countries at the request of the National Statistician and Registrars General for Scotland and Northern Ireland. Projections are made every second year, based on a review of trends in fertility, mortality and migration.
  2. Full results of the 2010-based national population projections for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries are available on the ONS website.
  3. The Northern Ireland projections are also available on the NISRA website. Population projections for areas within Northern Ireland will be updated after the 2011 Census results are published.
  4. Population projections are widely used in policy development, in areas as diverse as pensions, housing, healthcare and education.
  5. Projections are the result of applying long-term assumptions described in the ONS report. If different assumptions are used different population projections would result. A series of alternative population projections (variants) are also produced; these variant projections are available on the ONS website.
  6. Further statistical information can be obtained from NISRA Customer Services:
    Telephone: 028 9034 8160
    Fax: 028 9034 8161
    Email: census.nisra@dfpni.gov.uk
    Responsible Statistician: Dr David Marshall
  7. Media enquiries should be addressed to the Department of Finance and Personnel Communications Office on Tel: 028 9016 3388 or 028 9016 3389. Out of Office hours please contact the Duty Press Officer via pager number 07699 715 440 and your call will be returned.