Statistics press notice - overall population growth to continue in Northern Ireland

The population of Northern Ireland is projected to increase by seventy thousand people (4%) over the five years from 2006 to 2011.

The West and South of Northern Ireland is projected to have the largest growth (8%) over the five year period while the Greater Belfast area will see the smallest level of growth (0.4%). This is according to new figures released today by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency.

Between 2006 and 2011:

• The total population in Northern Ireland is projected to increase by 4% from 1,741,600 in 2006 to 1,811,700 in 2011.
• The West & South of Northern Ireland is projected to have the largest growth, increasing from 391,300 in 2006 to 424,000 in 2011 (8%).
• In contrast the Greater Belfast area is projected to have the smallest increase in population from 645,500 in 2006 to 648,200 in 2011 (0.4%).

Commenting on the statistics a NISRA spokesperson said: “The population of Northern Ireland is projected to grow due to improvements in mortality, continued net in-migration to Northern Ireland and increases in the birth rate. The new local area projections released today will help to inform policy and assist public service delivery across Northern Ireland.”

Notes to Editors:

1. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) produces national population projections for the UK and constituent countries. Projections are made every second year, based on a review of the trends affecting fertility, mortality and migration. The national projections can be found at the National Statistics website.

2. Statistics on sub-Northern Ireland population projections can be obtained by sending a request to NISRA Customer Services
Telephone: 028 9034 8160
Fax: 028 9034 8161
Email: dmb.nisra@dfpni.gov.uk

3. A more detailed version of this news release, which includes tables and graphs, is available on the home page of the Department of Finance & Personnel website.

4. The large regional areas in this press release correspond to the NUTS III areas with the amalgamation of Belfast and Outer Belfast to form Greater Belfast. The areas mentioned above are defined as

• Greater Belfast: Belfast, Carrickfergus, Castlereagh, Lisburn, Newtownabbey and North Down LGDs.
• West & South of Northern Ireland: Armagh, Cookstown, Dungannon, Fermanagh, Magherafelt, Newry & Mourne and Omagh LGDs.

5. Population projections are the result of applying long-term demographic assumptions only. They are solely based on historical trends in fertility, mortality and migration and they do not take into account planned policy changes and other social and economic factors which may influence population distribution. LGD level figures are thus less robust than those produced at Northern Ireland or large regional area. Similarly, the further into the future that projections are taken, the greater the degree of uncertainty associated with the projections.

6. A series of Northern Ireland and large regional area household projections based on these population projections will be produced in March 2008.

7. Media enquiries only to DFP Press Office on 028 9052 7644 or 028 9052 27375. Out of office hours please contact the Duty Press Officer via pager number 07699 715 440 and your call will be returned.