Northern Ireland will consider climate change projections, Wilson confirms

Department of Environment officials in Northern Ireland will consider the findings of UK Climate Projections released by Defra, Environment Minister Sammy Wilson said today.

The Minister was commenting after the projections indicated the UK was likely to see hotter, drier summers and warmer wetter winters, coupled with an increased frequency of extreme weather occurrences such as heatwaves, dry spells, heavy rain and flooding.

The Minister responded: “I note the release of the 2009 UK Climate Projections. DOE officials and officials from other Departments will be considering the findings as they develop a Northern Ireland Climate Change Adaptation Programme over the coming years.

“The adaptation programme will build upon the Scottish and Northern Ireland Forum for Environmental Research (SNIFFER) report, published by my Department in January 2007, which examined the ways in which Northern Ireland must prepare to meet the opportunities and threats presented by the impacts of a changing climate.

“Under the Climate Change Act 2008, an adaptation programme is to be prepared and laid before the Assembly once a UK risk assessment has been completed in November 2011.

“That said, I understand that an independent peer review of the UKCP 09 climate change projections has indicated significant uncertainties. Amongst other things, the review states that the scope of UKCP09 stretches the ability of current climate science and methodology.

“It continues that 25km scale climate change information presented is indicative, and that no projections are given for regional or local wind changes. The review emphasises the importance of the global climate model from which these regional climate change projections are produced, and highlights errors in this model, such as a limited ability to represent atmospheric behaviours which can lead to climate extremes over Europe.

“No doubt we will want to take this independent commentary into account as we make plans to prepare for the impacts of climate change.”

The climate projections released by Defra are based on anticipated changes to climate variables such as precipitation, temperature, wind speed and sea level rise.

Some of the key findings from the Climate Change Projections estimate that by the 2050’s Northern Ireland will have:

• An increase in winter mean temperature of approximately 1.7 °C;
• An increase in summer mean temperature of approximately 2.2°C;
• Changes in winter mean precipitation of approximately +9%;
• Changes in summer mean precipitation of approximately -12%; and
• Sea level rise for Belfast of 14.5cm above the 1990 sea level.

In order to assist organisations, who plan to use the projections, the UK Climates Impact Programme will be running a UK wide ‘Projections in practice programme’.

In Northern Ireland, training sessions, seminars and briefing sessions will be delivered, in the autumn, to key decision makers from central and local government, the business community, the voluntary sector and professional organisations.

Notes to Editors:

1. UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) is based at Oxford University, it is government funded to provide support across the UK. Since 1997 UKCIP has brought together research and good practice to develop a range of tools and support materials. The new set of climate models for the UK have been developed by a consortium of organisations, including the Met Office Hadley Centre, UKCIP, British Atmospheric Data Centre and University of Newcastle. The consortium has been managed by Defra, on behalf of the UK government, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales.

2. For media enquiries please contact DOE Press Office 028 9054 0003 or out of office hours contact the EIS Duty Press Officer on pager 07699 715440 and your call will be returned