Statistical press release - Fuel poverty, climate and morality in Northern Ireland 1980 - 2006

The Department for Social Development has published a report on Fuel Poverty, Climate and Mortality. This showed that:

During the period 1980-2006, deaths from circulatory and respiratory causes have declined by about 30% with all age groups showing a decline.

Temperature shortfall was the most common significant explanatory variable of those variables examined over the entire period.

From 1980-1999, the proportion of deaths that could be linked to temperature shortfall was 16-21%, falling to only 5 -12% in the period 2000-2006.

The circulatory death rate among the elderly was affected by temperature shortfall, but the impact in 2000-2004 was about a third of that in the 1980s.

All else being equal, the proportion of deaths from circulatory & respiratory causes significantly increases with age, and with lower temperatures.

Parts of Northern Ireland which have an older population or colder weather thus tend to have more circulatory & respiratory deaths. People living in inland rural upland areas in winter are thus most at risk.

In the period 2001-2006, in the East, lowest fuel poverty levels are found in villages. Cheaper houses (possibly smaller), social renting and full central heating are also indicative of a lower risk of fuel poverty, whereas owned and detached property are both associated with a greater risk of fuel poverty. Local southerly aspect seems linked to fuel poverty. This may be something to do with the age of the property.

In the West, small towns have lower levels of fuel poverty. Detached property is again associated with greater risk of fuel poverty, but tenure, property value and central heating are not significant factors. Again, local southerly aspect is linked to fuel poverty.

In the East, apart from the anticipated effects of age and temperature, urban location, local house quality and central heating are also significant in explaining the proportion of circulatory & respiratory deaths. Urban areas, full central heating and better quality local housing are associated with lower proportions of such deaths.

In the West, however, property value is the only additional significant factor, with cheaper houses more likely to be associated with circulatory & respiratory death.

Overall, the significant factors common to both East and West generally impact in the same way on local fuel poverty and cause of death.

The exception to this is urban location. All else being equal, local fuel poverty is higher in Urban East than in Rural East whereas it is lower in Urban West areas, compared with Rural West. This is in line with levels of income recorded in these areas.

The proportion of circulatory & respiratory deaths, on the other hand, is lower in Urban East areas than in Rural East, whereas in the West, there is no significant difference between urban and rural.

Though Derry is well off as regards fuel poverty, its health is no better than average, given its young population. By contrast, given its older population, Belfast Metropolitan Urban Area is somewhat better than average as regards fuel poverty but its health is much better.

Taking account of a wider range of factors in the period 2001-2006, between 4% and 6% of deaths have a linkage to low temperature. This may be due to exposure to low temperature outside the home as well as to low temperature inside.

Notes to Editors:

1. Fuel Poverty, Climate and Mortality in Northern Ireland 1980-2006 Is published as NISRA Occasional Paper 25 and is available on the DSD internet site at: http://www.dsdni.gov.uk/publications-housing-research.htm

It contains two research papers. The first looks at trends in mortality in Northern Ireland as a whole, over the period 1980-2006, linking these to temperature, price trends, and seasonality. The second links mortality data in 2001-2006 to age, temperature and housing conditions, both individual and neighbourhood, at a very local level through the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study and the House Conditions Survey.

2. Further enquiries should be addressed to:

Statistics & Research Branch (Core), Level 4, James House, Gasworks Business Park, Ormeau Road, Belfast, BT7 2JA:

Tel - 028 90819937; Fax - 028 90819961;srb@dsdni.gov.uk

3. Media enquiries to DSD Information Office on 028 90829497. Out of office hours please call the Duty Press Officer on pager number 07699 715440 and your call will be returned.