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Foster comments on latest labour market figures

Wednesday, 11 August 2010

Figures released today for the period April - June 2010 recorded a decrease in the Northern Ireland unemployment rate to 6.6%.

More recent figures for July 2010 showed an increase of 800 over the month in the number of unemployment benefit claimants.

Commenting on the figures, Enterprise Minister, Arlene Foster said: “The Northern Ireland unemployment rate fell marginally over the quarter to 6.6% for the period April – June 2010. This figure remained below the UK average rate of 7.8% and was also lower than the European Union rate of 9.6%.

“However, more recent figures for July 2010 showed an increase of 800 over the month in the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits. This latest monthly increase was the largest since the start of 2010 and compared to a fall in overall UK claimant levels. It has been well documented that those leaving full-time education have been finding it difficult to obtain permanent employment in Northern Ireland and this seems to be reflected in July’s claimant count results.

“It is also clear that the local labour market has been particularly hit by the fall out from the global recession. The annual increase of 6,000 in unemployment benefit claimants in Northern Ireland was the largest of the UK regions. Sales and unskilled occupations were the hardest hit during this time, accounting for over 60% of the annual rise in unemployment.

“Trading conditions remain extremely challenging for our businesses and the impending public sector spending cuts will add further negative pressure on the labour market.

“It is therefore imperative that we, as an Executive, make the right decisions and put in place the correct policies that will help the Northern Ireland private sector maximise growth. I am currently chairing an Executive Sub-Committee, tasked with developing an economic strategy that will deliver on this goal.

“The Sub-Committee is actively consulting with all the relevant stakeholders and I have established an independent Economic Advisory Group to ensure that high-quality, expert advice is available for consideration. The outcome of this work will be a comprehensive strategy that will set out the priorities and actions needed to achieve a strong and vibrant economy in Northern Ireland.”

Further information on the latest labour market figures is available in the Labour Market Statistical Press Release (see DETI website.

Notes to editors:

The superscript numbers throughout the bullet points refer to the relevant endnotes.

  • The Northern Ireland seasonally adjusted unemployment rate2, as measured by the Labour Force Survey (LFS), was estimated at 6.6% for the period April - June 2010. This represented a decrease from the rate of 6.8%, which was recorded in the previous quarter, but was up from the rate of 6.5% recorded in the same period one year ago. The Northern Ireland unemployment rate remained below the UK average (7.8%) and was the third lowest rate among the twelve UK regions. It was also below the European Union (9.6%) and Republic of Ireland (13.3%) rates for May 2010.
  • The seasonally adjusted number of people claiming unemployment related benefits4 stood at 56,800 in July 2010 – up 800 (1.4%) over the month. This was the highest monthly increase in the level of unemployment benefit claimants among the twelve UK regions, with the UK as a whole recording a monthly decrease of 0.3%. Over the year, the Northern Ireland claimant count has increased by 11.8% (6,000), compared to a decrease of 7.6% in the UK.
  • Seasonally adjusted estimates for the period April - June 2010 showed that there were 777,000 people in employment in Northern Ireland. This estimate was up 0.6% from the previous quarter and increased by 4.1% over the year.
  • The seasonally adjusted number of working age7 persons that were economically inactive decreased by an estimated 3,000 over the quarter and the corresponding working age economic inactivity rate decreased to 28.8% (in April - June 2010). However, the Northern Ireland inactivity rate (28.8%) remained considerably higher than the UK average rate (23.4%) and was the highest of the twelve UK regions.
  • Unadjusted LFS estimates can provide information on the reason for economic inactivity. In April - June 2010 an estimated 28% of the economically inactive of working age in NI are students, 27% are sick/disabled, 23% are looking after the family/home, 14% are retired and 8% are ‘other’ reason.
  • The Department was notified of 140 confirmed redundancies8-10 which took place in July 2010. This compared to 136 in June 2010 and 141 in July 2009. There has been a 36% decrease in the number of confirmed redundancies over the last year to 31 July 2010 – 2,994 compared to 4,705 in the previous year.

Endnotes:

  1. The Labour Force Survey (LFS) measure of unemployment used in DETI labour market statistical publications is consistent with the International Labour Organisation measure. An explanation of the difference between the LFS and Claimant Count measures of unemployment can be found at the DETi website
  2. The official measure of unemployment is sourced to the LFS and refers to people without a job who were available for work and had either looked for work in the four weeks prior to interview or were waiting to start a job they had already obtained. This definition is consistent with that recommended by the International Labour Office. Unemployment estimates for the European Union and the Republic of Ireland are sourced to EUROSTAT.
  3. The figures released today contain data from a number of different sources. The unemployment, employment and economic inactivity rates are sourced to the LFS and refer to the period April - June 2010. It should be noted that the LFS figures are estimates, which are subject to sampling error. This means that the exact figure is likely to be contained in a range surrounding the estimate quoted. For example, the exact number of unemployed persons is 95% likely to fall within +/- 10,000 of the quoted estimate.
  4. The Claimant Count measure of unemployment relates to July 2010 and is based on claimant data from Jobs and Benefits Office Administrative Systems.
  5. Not all those who register for unemployment benefits meet the criteria for LFS unemployment. Conversely, not all those defined as unemployed in the LFS are eligible for unemployment benefits. Estimates of the numbers unemployed may also differ between the two sources due to timing differences.
  6. Per the Standard Occupational Classification (2000), 62% of the annual increase in claimant count unemployment was accounted for by two of the nine occupational groups – Group 9: ‘Elementary’ occupations and Group 7: ‘Sales & Customer Service’ occupations.
  7. The ‘working age’ definition, used in the calculation of employment and economic inactivity rates, has been changed this month to include those aged from 16 to 64 for both men and women. Previously these rates were based on upper age limits of 59 for women and 64 for men, reflecting the state pension ages in the UK. However, between 2010 and 2020, the state pension age for women is increasing (by one month every two months) from 60 to 65, thereby making a change to the definition necessary. The change in definition follows a UK wide public consultation on the issue and the approach being applied to Northern Ireland labour market statistics mirrors the approach that the Office for National Statistics (ONS) are applying to other UK regions. A consistent time series for the new headline rates has been produced and all future reference to working age rates will be based on the 16 to 64 definition. Please see link for further details http://www.detini.gov.uk/introduction_of_new_working_age_definition.pdf.) Please note that there are no implications for the headline unemployment rate, which will continue to be based on the economically active population aged 16 and over.
  8. Under the Employment Rights (Northern Ireland) Order 1996 companies are only legally required to notify the Department of impending redundancies of 20 or more employees. Any estimates provided are therefore likely to be an underestimate of total job losses, though it is not possible to quantify the extent of the shortfall.
  9. Subject to the criteria mentioned above, employers must notify the Department of a) redundancies proposed and b) redundancies confirmed. Where redundancies occur, the confirmed total provides a better indication of real job losses since all proposed redundancies do not actually take place.
  10. Redundancies do not necessarily equate to job losses, for example, employees who do not qualify for a redundancy package; those on temporary contracts are not incorporated in redundancy estimates.
  11. Details of sampling errors, together with more detailed statistical information and definitions of the methodology used, can be found in the Labour Market Report (LMR) bulletin, which is available on the following website: http://www.statistics.detini.gov.uk/
  12. For media enquiries, please contact DETI Press Office on 028 9052 9297. Out of office hours, please contact the Duty Press Officer via pager number 07699 715 440 and your call will be returned.
  13. General information can be obtained from Martin Monaghan, DETI Statistics Research Branch, on Tel: 028 9052 9421.