Latest Labour Market Figures Released
Wednesday, 15 July 2009Figures released today recorded a continued increase in unemployment levels and a fall in production and service sector output.
The Northern Ireland seasonally adjusted unemployment rate1, as measured by the Labour Force Survey (LFS), was estimated at 6.3% for the period March to May 2009. This represented an increase from the rate of 5.7% recorded in the previous quarter and was also up from the rate of 4.1% recorded in the same period one year ago. However, the Northern Ireland unemployment rate remained below the UK average (7.6%) and was also lower than the European Union (8.6%) and Republic of Ireland (11.1%) rates for April 2009.
The more recent claimant count measure of unemployment stood at 49,500 in June 2009, with the number of claimants having increased by 1,600 over the month. While this is the smallest rise in the last eight months, the increase in the previous month was broadly similar (1,800). Over the year to June 2009, the number of unemployed claimants in Northern Ireland has increased by 23,600 (91.1%), which is slightly higher than the equivalent UK increase (85.0%).
Seasonally adjusted estimates for the period March to May 2009 showed that there were 744,000 people in employment in Northern Ireland. This represented an estimated fall of 1.8% in employment levels over the quarter and a decrease of 6.4% over the year.
The seasonally adjusted number of working age persons that were economically inactive increased by an estimated 17,000 over the quarter and the corresponding working age economic inactivity rate increased to 30.0% (in March - May 2009). There is some evidence that the annual fall in employment levels in Northern Ireland has been accounted for by a rise in economic inactivity. The Northern Ireland inactivity rate (30.0%) remained considerably higher than the UK average rate (20.9%) and was the highest of the UK regions.
The Department was notified of 175 confirmed redundancies which took place in June 2009. This compares to 380 in May 2009 and 94 in June 2008. There has been a 185% increase in the number of confirmed redundancies over the last year to 30 June 2009 – 4,573 compared to 1,602 in the previous year.
Provisional seasonally adjusted estimates from the Index of Production (IOP) for the first quarter of 2009 showed that output from the production industries fell in real terms over the quarter (-3.4) and over the year (-9.0%). This is the fourth consecutive quarter in which output has fallen in this sector, after peaking in quarter 1, 2008. Revisions to the Index have shifted the peak from that previously reported (Q2 2008). The UK reported falls in production output of 5.4% over the quarter and 12.6% over the year. The UK Index has also declined for four consecutive quarters.
Over the quarter production output in the Engineering & Allied Industries fell by 7.4%, recording the lowest level since Q1 2003, Other Manufacturing Industries was down 4.1% reaching its lowest level since Q4 2003, Basic Metals & Fabricated Metal Products was down 5.1%, Food, Drink & Tobacco was down 0.3% and Leather & Textiles was down 2.5%. Chemicals & Chemical Products was the only broad subsector to report an increase (+1.4%) over the quarter.
Provisional seasonally adjusted estimates from the experimental Index of Services (IOS) for the first quarter of 2009 showed that the service sector in Northern Ireland had decreased by 0.4% over the quarter and by 2.8% compared to the same quarter one year earlier. The UK reported falls in service sector output of 1.2% over the quarter and 2.2% over the year. This was the seventh consecutive quarter in which service sector output in Northern Ireland had fallen. Northern Ireland service sector output decreased by 3.2% over the last four quarters when compared to the previous four quarters (compared with an increase of 0.2% for the UK as a whole).
This was the first quarter in which Distribution - Wholesale & Retail has shown an increase (1.1%) after six consecutive quarters of decline. It was the second consecutive quarter in which Business Services & Finance (1.4%) has reported an increase after five quarters of decline. However, over the quarter there was an overall decline in the index, with the following sub sectors contributing most to the fall - Hotels & Restaurants (-7.4%), Transport, Storage & Communication (-2.9%) and Other Services (-2.8%).
Commenting on the figures, Enterprise Minister Arlene Foster said: “Northern Ireland is continuing to experience the negative effect of the global downturn. The number of unemployment benefit recipients increased once again in June and output fell in both the Production and Services sectors in the first quarter of the year. It is some consolation that the Northern Ireland unemployment rate remains below that of the UK ( 7.6%), European Union (8.6%) and the Republic of Ireland (11.1%).
“I am committed to doing whatever is possible to mitigate the effect of the global recession in Northern Ireland and to ensure businesses are well placed to take advantage of economic recovery when it comes. There is no doubt that the recession is hitting businesses here but I am convinced that high quality products, a good understanding of markets, and targeted support for businesses can still reap dividends, even in these difficult times.”
The Minister continued: “Existing Invest NI programmes which offer business support and mentoring or help to develop a sustainable strategy for the future are valuable. The response to the recently announced £15million Short Term Aid scheme has been encouraging and I would urge other eligible businesses to consider such support where it is appropriate."
In conclusion the Minister said: “We cannot be deflected from laying the foundations of a new more prosperous economy. My Department will continue to support high potential start-ups and early stage businesses through a range of initiatives provided by Invest NI, such as the recently announced £5million venture capital fund. Such initiatives will deliver significant economic returns over the longer term. Indeed, in this context, I expect to receive the report from the Independent Review on economic policy, shortly. The report and its recommendations will help shape the direction for the Northern Ireland economy in the coming years.”
Notes to Editors
1. The official measure of unemployment is sourced to the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and refers to people without a job who were available for work and had either looked for work in the four weeks prior to interview or were waiting to start a job they had already obtained. This definition is consistent with that recommended by the International Labour Office. Unemployment estimates for the European Union and the Republic of Ireland are sourced to EUROSTAT.
2. The figures released today contain data from a number of different sources. The unemployment, employment and economic inactivity rates are sourced to the LFS and refer to the period March - May 2009. It should be noted that the LFS figures are estimates, which are subject to sampling error. This means that the exact figure is likely to be contained in a range surrounding the estimate quoted. For example, the exact number of unemployed persons is 95% likely to fall within +/- 9,000 of the quoted estimate.
3. The Claimant Count measure of unemployment relates to June 2009 and is based on claimant data from Jobs and Benefits Office Administrative Systems.
4. Not all those who register for unemployment benefits meet the criteria for LFS unemployment. Conversely, not all those defined as unemployed in the LFS are eligible for unemployment benefits. Estimates of the numbers unemployed may also differ between the two sources due to timing differences.
5. Under the Employment Rights (Northern Ireland) Order 1996 companies are only legally required to notify the Department of impending redundancies of 20 or more employees. Any estimates provided are therefore likely to be an underestimate of total job losses, though it is not possible to quantify the extent of the shortfall.
6. Subject to the criteria mentioned above, employers must notify the Department of a) redundancies proposed and b) redundancies confirmed. Where redundancies occur, the confirmed total provides a better indication of real job losses since all proposed redundancies do not actually take place.
7. Redundancies do not necessarily equate to job losses, for example, employees who do not qualify for a redundancy package; those on temporary contracts are not incorporated in redundancy estimates.
8. The Production and Service Sector Output measures relate to the 1st quarter (January-March) of 2009. These estimates are based on surveys of businesses and estimates of change are subject to sampling error. Figures for a quarter may be revised if more complete information subsequently becomes available.
9. The ‘Other Manufacturing Sector’ includes – Wood and Wood products, Pulp, Paper and Printing products, Rubber and Plastic products, Non-metalic Mineral products, Refined Petroleum products and Manufacturing not elsewhere classified.
10. The ‘Other Services Sector’ Includes - Education, Health and Social Work and Other community, Social and Personal Services activities.
11.Details of sampling errors, together with more detailed statistical information and definitions of the methodology used, can be found in the Labour Market Report (LMR) bulletin, which is available on the following website: 
http://www.detini.gov.uk/cgi-bin/downdoc?id=4610
The Statistical Press Release for the new Index of Production figures can be found at:http://www.detini.gov.uk/cgi-bin/downdoc?id=4608
The Statistical Press Release for the new Index of Services figures can be found at: http://www.detini.gov.uk/cgi-bin/downdoc?id=4606
12. For media enquiries, please contact DETI Press Office on 028 9052 9297. Out of office hours, please contact the Duty Press Officer via pager number 07699 715 440 and your call will be returned.
13. General information can be obtained from Martin Monaghan, DETI Statistics Research Branch, on Tel: 028 9052 9421.
Connect with US
