Latest labour market figures released

Figures released today recorded a further increase in the Northern Ireland unemployment rate during the third quarter of 2009.

However, more recent figures for October 2009 showed no change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits - the first month that these figures have not increased since February 2008.

The Northern Ireland seasonally adjusted unemployment rate2, as measured by the Labour Force Survey (LFS), was estimated at 7.2% for the period July to September 2009. This represented an increase from the rate of 6.8% recorded in the previous quarter and was also up from the rate of 4.2% recorded in the same period one year ago.

The annual increase in the unemployment rate was the largest increase since the LFS seasonally adjusted series began in 1995 and was the second highest increase among the UK regions. However, the Northern Ireland unemployment rate remained below the UK average (7.8%) and was the joint fourth lowest rate among the UK regions. It was also lower than the European Union (9.1%) and Republic of Ireland (12.5%) rates for August 2009.

The seasonally adjusted number of people claiming unemployment related benefits stood at 53,700 (6.2% of the workforce) in October 2009. This figure was unchanged from the previous month and represented the first time in 20 months that there was no increase in the Northern Ireland level. The unchanged position in Northern Ireland meant that it had the third lowest monthly change in claimants among the UK regions (the East and South West of England reported decreases). The UK as a whole recorded an increase of 0.8% over the month. Over the year, the Northern Ireland claimant count has increased by 70.5% (22,200), compared to a UK increase of 62.8%. The Northern Ireland annual increase ranked fourth highest among the UK regions.

Seasonally adjusted estimates for the period July - September 2009 showed that there were 751,000 people in employment in Northern Ireland. This estimate has increased marginally from the previous quarter (+0.8%), but was down 4.4% over the year.

The seasonally adjusted number of working age persons that were economically inactive decreased by an estimated 8,000 over the quarter and the corresponding working age economic inactivity rate decreased to 28.7% (in July - September 2009). However, the Northern Ireland inactivity rate (28.7%) remained considerably higher than the UK average rate (21.1%) and was the highest of the UK regions.

The Department was notified of 184 confirmed redundancies 6-8 which took place in October 2009. This compared to 457 in September 2009 and 833 in October 2008. There has been a 74% increase in the number of confirmed redundancies over the last year to 31st October 2009 – 4,428 compared to 2,541 in the previous year.

Commenting on the figures, Enterprise Minister, Arlene Foster said: “While not unexpected, it is disappointing to see a rise in the unemployment rate during the third quarter of 2009. However, the more recent claimant count figures for October 2009 show that for the first time in 20 months, the number of unemployment benefit recipients in Northern Ireland did not rise over the month. The unchanged figures for Northern Ireland compare with a continued rise in claimant levels in the UK.

“It is clear that the local labour market has been particularly hit by the recession, and trading conditions for many of our companies remain difficult. However, any pause in the rate of increase in unemployed claimants is to be welcomed. I will continue to monitor these figures very closely for signs of a sustained recovery in the local labour market and in the Northern Ireland economy more widely.

“We will also continue our work to help Northern Ireland businesses through this difficult period. Our aim is to ensure that job losses are minimised and that companies are best placed to take advantage of the opportunities that a global recovery will undoubtedly bring.”

Notes to editors:

1. Some individuals have expressed views about the measure of unemployment used in DETI labour market statistical publications. Official statisticians have indicated that the use of the International Labour Organisation measure is consistent with international definitions. An explanation of the measures of unemployment can be found at the DETI wesite here or here.
2. The official measure of unemployment is sourced to the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and refers to people without a job who were available for work and had either looked for work in the four weeks prior to interview or were waiting to start a job they had already obtained. This definition is consistent with that recommended by the International Labour Organisation. Unemployment estimates for the European Union and the Republic of Ireland are sourced to EUROSTAT.
3. The figures released today contain data from a number of different sources. The unemployment, employment and economic inactivity rates are sourced to the LFS and refer to the period July - September 2009. It should be noted that the LFS figures are estimates, which are subject to sampling error. This means that the exact figure is likely to be contained in a range surrounding the estimate quoted. For example, the exact number of unemployed persons is 95% likely to fall within +/- 10,000 of the quoted estimate.
4. The Claimant Count measure of unemployment relates to October 2009 and is based on claimant data from Jobs and Benefits Office Administrative Systems.
5. Not all those who register for unemployment benefits meet the criteria for LFS unemployment. Conversely, not all those defined as unemployed in the LFS are eligible for unemployment benefits. Estimates of the numbers unemployed may also differ between the two sources due to timing differences.
6. Under the Employment Rights (Northern Ireland) Order 1996 companies are only legally required to notify the Department of impending redundancies of 20 or more employees. Any estimates provided are therefore likely to be an underestimate of total job losses, though it is not possible to quantify the extent of the shortfall.
7. Subject to the criteria mentioned above, employers must notify the Department of a) redundancies proposed and b) redundancies confirmed. Where redundancies occur, the confirmed total provides a better indication of real job losses since all proposed redundancies do not actually take place.
8. Redundancies do not necessarily equate to job losses, for example, employees who do not qualify for a redundancy package; those on temporary contracts are not incorporated in redundancy estimates.
9. Details of sampling errors, together with more detailed statistical information and definitions of the methodology used, can be found in the Labour Market Report (LMR) bulletin, which is available on the following website: DETI website
10. For media enquiries, please contact DETI Press Office on 028 9052 9297. Out of office hours, please contact the Duty Press Officer via pager number 07699 715 440 and your call will be returned.
11. General information can be obtained from Martin Monaghan, DETI Statistics Research Branch, on Tel: 028 9052 9421.