Output from Northern Ireland’s service sector fell in the second quarter of 2008. Production output increased over the quarter and the year.
The Northern Ireland seasonally adjusted unemployment rate1 was estimated at 4.3% for the period June to August 2008. This represented a slight increase from the rate of 4.1% recorded last quarter and was also higher than the rate of 3.7% recorded in the same period one year ago. Despite this increase, the Northern Ireland unemployment rate remained below the UK average (5.7%) and was also lower than the European Union (6.8%) and Republic of Ireland (5.9%) rates for July 2008.
Seasonally adjusted estimates for the same period showed that there were 788,000 people in employment in Northern Ireland. This represented a fall of 0.9% in employment levels over the quarter, but a rise of 1.5% over the year.
The number of people claiming unemployment related benefits increased by 1,200 during the latest month to 28,900 in September 2008. This represented the largest single monthly increase in unemployed claimants in over twenty years (since April 1986). The construction industry accounted for approximately 60% of the September increase. The number of unemployed claimants in Northern Ireland in September 2008 (28,900) was equal to the level reported some three and a half years ago (28,900 in February 2005).
The latest seasonally adjusted working age economic inactivity rate in Northern Ireland (26.7%) increased from the figure of 26.2% recorded for the previous quarter. The Northern Ireland rate remained considerably higher than the UK average rate (20.9%) and was the highest of the UK regions.
Commenting on the figures, Economy Minister Arlene Foster said: "The latest labour market figures show some further increases in unemployment. While this is disappointing, it is not entirely unexpected.
“The slow-down in the housing market and wider construction industry in particular is having a large impact, with former construction workers accounting for the majority of the rise in benefit claimants during September.”
Provisional seasonally adjusted estimates from the Index of Production (IOP) for the second quarter of 2008 showed that output from the production industries had increased by 1.1% in real terms over the quarter. Compared to the same quarter one year earlier, overall output had risen by 4.6%. Production over the last four quarters increased by 2.5% when compared to the previous four quarters.
The UK reported falls in production output of 0.7% over the quarter and 1.1% over the year. Production over the last four quarters in the UK remained steady when compared to the previous four quarters (+0.2%).
Over the quarter, the manufacturing sub-sectors that contributed most to the increase in Northern Ireland were: the manufacture of Rubber and Plastic Products (up 4.4%) and the Transport Equipment sector (up 4.2%). Seven out of the twelve manufacturing sub-sectors reported growth over the quarter.
Provisional seasonally adjusted estimates from the experimental Index of Services (IOS) for the second quarter of 2008 showed that the service sector had decreased by 1.4% over the quarter and by 4.3% compared to the same quarter one year earlier. This was the fourth consecutive quarter in which service sector output had fallen. The decrease in Northern Ireland services over the last four quarters (-4.3%) compared with an increase of 2.2% for the UK as a whole.
Over the quarter, the largest contribution to the fall in the Index was driven by the following sub sectors: Distribution - Wholesale & Retail (-2.4%) and Business Services & Finance (-1.0%). Over the same period the Other Services sector (7.3%) and Transport Storage & Communication (1.3%) reported an increase, while Hotels & Restaurants remained constant.
Reflecting on the Index of Production and Index of Services, Arlene Foster said: “This was the fourth consecutive quarter in which we have seen a decline in business activity in private sector services. Most of this has been driven by falling sales in the Wholesale & Retail and Business Services & Finance Sectors during the second quarter of the year.
“We cannot expect to be immune from the dramatic changes in the financial markets. Business and consumer confidence has also undoubtedly been affected by price rises and economic uncertainty.
“Nevertheless, this must be considered in the context of the positive results from the production sector, which has shown increased output over the quarter and the year. This highlights the importance of ensuring that we have high quality products and services for export to global markets.
“In these times of economic uncertainty, the most innovative and productive companies are better positioned to weather the economic downturn.”
Notes to Editors:
1. The official measure of unemployment is sourced to the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and refers to people without a job who were available for work and had either looked for work in the four weeks prior to interview or were waiting to start a job they had already obtained. This definition is consistent with that recommended by the International Labour Office. Unemployment estimates for the European Union and the Republic of Ireland are sourced to EUROSTAT.
2. The figures released today contain data from a number of different sources. The unemployment, employment and economic inactivity rates are sourced to the LFS and refer to the period June-August 2008. It should be noted that the LFS figures are estimates, which are subject to sampling error. This means that the exact figure is likely to be contained in a range surrounding the estimate quoted.
3. The Claimant Count measure of unemployment relates to September 2008 and is based on claimant data from Jobs and Benefits Office Administrative Systems.
4. The Production and Service Sector Output measures relate to the 2nd quarter (April-June) of 2008. These estimates are based on surveys of businesses and estimates of change are subject to sampling error. Figures for a quarter may be revised if more complete information subsequently becomes available.
5. Details of sampling errors, together with more detailed statistical information and definitions of the methodology used, can be found in the Labour Market Report (LMR), Index of Production and Index of Services bulletins, which are available on the following website:
http://www.statistics.detini.gov.uk/ - http://www.detini.gov.uk/cgi-bin/downdoc?id=3956
- http://www.detini.gov.uk/cgi-bin/downdoc?id=3968
- http://www.detini.gov.uk/cgi-bin/downdoc?id=3954
6. For media enquiries, please contact DETI Press Office on 028 9052 9297. Outside office hours, please contact the Duty Press Officer via pager number 07699 715 440 and your call will be returned.
7. General information can be obtained from Martin Monaghan, DETI Statistics Research Branch, on Tel: 028 9052 9421.
