The Northern Ireland population is projected to increase by 70,000 people, or 4%, over the next five years. The population is projected to grow from 1.742 million in 2006 to 1.812million in 2011, according to figures released today by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency.
The figures show that:
- the population is projected to increase to 1.812 million in 2011 from 1.742 million in 2006. This is equivalent to an average annual rate of growth of 0.8%. Over the longer term, the population is projected to reach 1.922 million by 2021 an increase of 180,000 people or 10%;
- the projected increase in population is due to both natural growth and population migration. In the next five years it is projected that there will be 51,000 more births than deaths and 19,000 more people coming here to live than leaving; and
- projections indicate a marked increase in the size of the population at older ages. The number of people of current pensionable age is projected to increase by around 9% in the next five years and by around 40% over the next fifteen years, while the number of children is projected to remain broadly constant over the next fifteen years.
Notes to Editors:
- The Office for National Statistics (ONS) produces national population projections for the United Kingdom and constituent countries at the request of the Registrars General for England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Projections are made every second year, based on a review of the trends affecting fertility, mortality and migration.
- Full results of the 2006-based national population projections for the United Kingdom are available at: http://www.gad.gov.uk - the Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) website. Information for England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland is also published on the GAD website. The Northern Ireland projections are also available on the NISRA website at: http://www.nisra.gov.uk/demography. NISRA will publish 2006-based population projections for administrative areas within Northern Ireland in early 2008.
- Projections are the result of applying long-term assumptions described in the report. If different assumptions are used different results would result – a series of alternative population projections are also produced and these are available on the GAD website.
- Population projections form part of household projections for Northern Ireland. A series of household projections based on these projections will be produced in November 2007.
- Currently women aged 60 or more are eligible for the state pension and are thus of “pensionable age”. From 2020 onwards females will only be eligible for the state pension when they are aged 65 or more. The change in pension rules will be introduced incrementally over the period 2010 to 2020. Accordingly the number of women aged 60 to 64 who are of pensionable age will reduce over this period.
- Media enquiries only to DFP Press Office on 028 9052 7644 or 028 9052 27375. Out of office hours please contact the Duty Press Officer via pager number 07699 715 440 and your call will be returned.
- Further statistical information can be obtained from NISRA Customer Services:
Telephone: 028 9034 8160
Fax: 028 9034 8161
E-mail: census.nisra@dfpni.gov.uk
