21 October 2009 - Population set to pass 1.8 million next year

The population is projected to pass 1.8 million in 2010 and rise to 1.839 million by 2013, according to figures released today by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency.

The figures show that:

• The population is projected to increase to 1.839 million in 2013 from 1.775 million in 2008. This is equivalent to an average annual rate of growth of 0.7%. Over the longer term the population is projected to reach 1.946 million by 2023 an increase of 171,000 people or 10%;
• The projected increase in population is primarily due to natural growth. In total between 2008 and 2013 it is projected that there will be 55,000 more births than deaths; and
• Projections indicate a marked increase in the size of the population at older ages. The number of people of current pensionable age is projected to increase by around 11% in the next five years (2008-2013) and by 40% in the next fifteen years (2008-2023).

Assumptions

Population projections are by definition based on assumptions about future fertility (the number of children each woman will have), mortality (the chance of dying) and migration levels (movement of people into and out of Northern Ireland). In these population projections it is assumed that:

• The hypothetical “average woman” in Northern Ireland will have 1.95 children in her lifetime;
• People will continue to live longer, with death rates continuing to reduce. In the long term rates of improvement in mortality rates are projected to be 1% per annum; and
• Over the next six years around 10,000 more people will come here to live than leave. Beyond this migration will be broadly in balance with 500 more people coming here to live than leaving each year.

Age-Distribution

• The number of children in Northern Ireland is projected to increase marginally over the next fifteen years from 381,000 children in 2008 to a projected 398,000 children in 2023 (4% increase);
• The number of people of current working age is also projected to increase marginally from 1,098,000 people in 2008 to a projected 1,132,000 people in 2023 (3% increase);
• In contrast the number of people of current pensionable age is projected to increase markedly from 296,000 in 2008 to 416,000 in 2023, an increase of 41%. Between 2010 and 2020, the age at which women are eligible for the state pension will increase from 60 years to 65 years. Taking this into account, the number of people of working age is projected to rise by 9% and the number of actual pensioners will grow by 20%; and
• These figures show that the age profile of the population will gradually become older. The average age will rise from 37.6 years in 2008 to 40.4 years by 2023. The number of people aged 65 and over will continue to rise after 2023, and there are projected to be twice as many people aged 65 and over in 2041 than there are today.

Notes to editors:

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) produces national population projections for the United Kingdom and constituent countries at the request of the Registrars General for England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Projections are made every second year, based on a review of the trends affecting fertility, mortality and migration.

Full results of the 2008-based national population projections for the United Kingdom are available at the ONS website. Information for England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland is also published on the ONS website. The Northern Ireland projections are also available on the NISRA website. NISRA will publish 2008-based population projections for administrative areas within Northern Ireland in early 2010.

The 2008 Northern Ireland Population Projections can be found on the NISRA website.

Projections are the result of applying long-term assumptions described in the report. If different assumptions are used different results would result – a series of alternative population projections are also produced and these are available on the ONS website.

Currently women aged 60 or more are eligible for the state pension and are thus of “pensionable age”. From 2020 onwards females will only be eligible for the state when they are aged 65 or more. The change in pension rules will be introduced incrementally over the period 2010 to 2020. Accordingly the number of women aged 60 to 64 who are of pensionable age will reduce over this period.

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Further statistical information can be obtained from