"The picture across the world is changing quite rapidly and we continue to monitor the situation very closely. As of the 8th June there are now confirmed cases in 73 countries with 25,952 people confirmed as having the virus and a total of 139 deaths. Throughout the UK there are now 664 confirmed cases. We have also seen more cases in Republic of Ireland, with 11 now having been confirmed. Given this increasing number of cases worldwide, we can expect to see more here.
"As I have said previously, the public can be reassured that, for the vast majority of people affected in the UK, the symptoms have been similar to that of seasonal flu. I am however acutely aware that in the last week, a number of people in Scotland have been admitted to hospital and some of them are in intensive care.
Although these developments are of concern, people should not be unduly alarmed. It is, however, a reminder that we must not be complacent. We must maintain a high state of readiness so that we are fully prepared.
"Currently we remain at the World Health Organisation pandemic alert level 5. This means that a pandemic is thought to be imminent but is not necessarily inevitable. In recent days, the World Health Organisation has advised that we are getting closer to Phase 6 – where a pandemic is declared. It is not possible to state when this may happen but we are preparing for a possible announcement in the near future.
"A move to phase 6 would be a serious development, but the World Health Organisation alert levels reflect the global view, and any action taken in the UK will need to be based on the situation here.
"Currently in Northern Ireland, as in the rest of the UK, we are following a containment strategy — supplying antivirals both to those who develop the disease and, as a preventive measure, to their close contacts. This strategy has been effective to date in delaying the spread of the disease, and buying us valuable time.
"The number of people developing this disease will certainly rise over the coming weeks, as we have already seen in parts of Scotland and England. Thus we need to be prepared for the next stage, in which the outbreak can no longer be contained and has spread more widely. At that point we expect to have to move from a containment strategy to a mitigation strategy. This means that when the number of cases increases beyond a certain level, we will have to keep under review to what extent we supply antivirals to contacts —in the first instance supplying them only to immediate close contacts rather than to all contacts.
"I fully understand how this emerging situation may cause some public concern. The public can however be reassured that, if a global pandemic is declared or if we do need to move mitigation phase, we are well prepared to deal with it. The World Health Organisation has said, that the UK, and therefore Northern Ireland, is one of the best prepared countries in world. We have been preparing for a potential pandemic for some years.
"And this state of readiness will be vitally important especially as we approach our flu season. We know there is the potential for a further wave of the swine flu virus in the autumn, when it may be even more widespread.
"In light of this, I have been working closely with Ministerial colleagues across the UK to secure the production of a pre-pandemic vaccine. This is an opportunity to obtain vaccine supplies for the UK in advance of a pandemic wave. These arrangements may ensure that we have enough pre-pandemic vaccine to protect at least half of the population from swine flu by December.
"In addition, as part of plans to deal with a pandemic, we have sleeping contracts for pandemic vaccine in place. This means that if the World Health Organisation move their pandemic alert to Phase 6 we will have access to two doses of pandemic vaccine for everyone in Northern Ireland, if they need them.
"It will, however, be several months before sufficient vaccine supplies become available. In the light of that, it is essential that we continue to use our stock of antiviral drugs carefully so that the public will be protected during the winter months.
"We already have a stock of antiviral drugs that will cover half the population and I have ensured that steps are in place to increase that so that there will be antiviral drugs to treat up to 80% of the population. Previous global pandemics have not been known to have affected more than one third of the population.
"The current advice to suspected cases of swine flu is to stay at home and contact your GP if you are feeling unwell. This is extremely important in helping to reduce the spread of the virus. If we do see a sharp rise in the number of cases, it will be important that symptomatic patients at home can have access to antivirals without placing unnecessary additional pressures on GP practices and community pharmacies.
"I have therefore been working with my counterparts from the other UK Health Departments in developing the National Pandemic Flu Service. This system will co-ordinate the distribution of antivirals and has the capacity to cope with any surges in demand that are likely if the virus becomes more widespread.
"The National Pandemic Flu Service will be the first of its kind in the world and will be available from October.
"The aim is to enable symptomatic patients across the whole of the UK to access antivirals through a single 0800 number, or a supporting website application. This will mean people can have their symptoms assessed against a list of the key symptoms and risk factors either over the phone or online.
"Cross-government plans are also well established, although there have been no cases of swine flu in schools in Northern Ireland to date - parents, teachers and pupils can be reassured that our links with the Department of Education continue and robust plans are in place if a school is affected by a case of swine flu. Of course the schools in Northern Ireland close for their summer break much earlier than the rest of the UK, so this will be an advantage to help contain the possible spread of infection.
"Officials in my Department, together with staff in the Public Health Agency and in the Health and Social Care sector have been working continuously to ensure there is robust surveillance and appropriate testing and treatment of individuals at risk.
"I am pleased to report to Members that since my last statement, we are now able to carry out full confirmatory testing for swine flu in the laboratory at the Royal Victoria Hospital in Belfast. Previously, following initial tests in the RVH samples were sent to the national laboratory in London for final stage testing. The new system is a welcomed development as it greatly speeds up our testing process.
"It remains vitally important that the public continue to receive the information and advice they need. Every home in Northern Ireland should now have received a leaflet providing further public advice and information. Again, I ask people to read the leaflet and keep it safe.
"A major publicity campaign, including television, radio and newspaper advertising, has also been running in the national and local media. I believe that this has been effective in communicating the steps that people can take to protect themselves. Our message remains very clear and everyone has their part to play.
"We should all be following simple, effective hygiene measures such as using a tissue to cover your mouth and nose when sneezing, disposing of the tissue and then washing your hands with soap and water or sanitising gel. Catch it. Bin it. Kill it.
"The Northern Ireland swine flu helpline continues to operate, on 0800 0514 142 to provide advice. Information on swine flu is also available from the UK swine flu information line, on 0800 1 513 513.
"Posters and information leaflets have been provided to all ports and airports across Northern Ireland providing advice for travellers returning from swine-flu affected areas.
"I continue to receive full and detailed briefings on the national and international picture daily. This includes taking part in regular COBRA meetings, which will now be chaired by the new Secretary of State for Health, Andy Burnham, along with the Health Ministers from Wales and Scotland. My Department also continues to work closely with the Department of Health and Children in the Republic of Ireland and I am meeting with Mary Harney tomorrow to discuss the current situation in Northern Ireland and the Republic.
"I want to assure the public and the Assembly that I am continuing to give this situation the attention it deserves. We have been given a clear indication from the World Health Organisation that we are moving closer to the pandemic and we will monitor this very closely. I will, of course, report again to the Assembly if there are significant changes to the current situation.
"In the meantime, Members can remain assured that we have the necessary capability to respond to swine flu. The Health and Social Care Service is well prepared, and I thank Health Service staff for the commitment, support and dedication that they have demonstrated in the face of a potential pandemic."
