Weekly Swine Flu Update
Thursday, 3 September 2009The Department of Health, Social Services and Public Safety has today published the weekly flu bulletin.
Revised planning assumptions have also been published today. The new assumptions are based on the most up-to-date scientific evidence and indicate that estimates for the worst case scenario in the current pandemic are lower than previously thought.
The bulletin includes data for the week ending Friday 28 August (Week 35) and gives a good representation of the level of flu activity across Northern Ireland.
Key points from the bulletin are as follows:
- GP consultations for flu and flu-like illness have decreased but remain significantly higher than rates recorded in the same weeks of previous years;
- Out of Hours calls for flu and flu-like illness continue to decrease;
- There were 18 new cases of laboratory confirmed swine flu during week 35;
- The total number of laboratory confirmed cases in Northern Ireland as at noon on 2 September was 160;
- Antiviral prescriptions have decreased during week 35 to 384 compared with 577 courses prescribed in week 34;
- The number of cumulative swine flu hospitalisations is 56 as at noon on 2 September 2009;
- There has been one death related to swine flu.
The full weekly flu bulletin is available at www.dhsspsni.gov.uk and www.nidirect.gov.uk .
The updated planning assumptions indicate that:
- Up to 30% of the population may become ill with flu at some point over the course of the pandemic.
- Up to 1% of people who become ill with flu may require hospitalisation.
- Up to 0.1% of people who become ill may die from the virus.
Commenting on the updated planning assumptions, Health Minister Michael McGimpsey said: “I welcome the publication of the new planning assumptions. This information is very useful and will help us to prepare.
“The updated planning assumptions indicate that in Northern Ireland during the peak of the pandemic, approximately 113,000 people could contract swine flu in one week.
“These assumptions do not yet take account of the impact of the vaccination programme, and are not predictions – they are assumptions that allow us, to plan and prepare for the worst, while continuing to hope for the best. We now know more about the virus and while in the majority of people it is mild, for some it can be a serious illness. We know now that it isn’t a killer but it does kill.”
Chief Medical Officer, Dr Michael McBride said: “The number of contacts made to GPs during this period for flu-like illness has decreased for the fourth week in a row but remains significantly higher compared to this time in previous years, especially for the 15-44 age group. Primary care services continue to cope well despite the increased demand on their services.
“If you think you have swine flu stay at home, please do not visit your GP practice, pharmacy or A&E in person. People with underlying health conditions who are at higher risk of complications if they develop influenza should call their GP for advice and assessment for antivirals. This includes people with long-term conditions such as diabetes or chronic lung disease. In addition, pregnant women who develop flu-like symptoms should phone their GP promptly. Likewise, parents of children under five years should call their doctor if their child develops flu-like symptoms.
“For otherwise fit and healthy people, there is usually no need to take antivirals. Most people will recover at home by taking simple measures to alleviate symptoms such as resting, taking paracetamol and drinking plenty of fluids. If, however, your condition suddenly deteriorates or is getting worse after seven days (five for a child) then you should contact your GP or out-of-hours service.
“Simple but effective hygiene measures such as frequent hand-washing can also help. Remember to cover your mouth with a tissue when you cough or sneeze, then put the tissue into a bin – catch it, bin it, kill it!”
For further information visit the nidirect website, or call the Northern Ireland swine flu helpline on 0800 0 514 142 (9:00am to 5:00pm Monday to Friday); textphone 18001 0800 0 514 142. Information is also available on the swine flu information line 0800 1 513 513.
Notes to editors:
1. The UK has moved to a treatment phase in relation to managing the swine flu pandemic. This means that our focus is on treating those people who actually have swine flu and in particular those at higher risk of developing complications. In addition, the routine testing of suspected cases and the tracing of close contacts of a symptomatic patient has been discontinued. The level of flu in the community is therefore being monitored using a range of surveillance mechanisms through GP practices, Out of Hours centres, antiviral prescriptions and hospital surveillance systems. This enables us to monitor flu levels and identify trends in activity.
2. Some groups of people are more at risk of serious illness if they catch Swine Flu, and will need to start taking antivirals as soon as they are confirmed with the illness. We are still learning more about the risk profile of the virus, but we already know that the following are particularly susceptible.
People with:
- Chronic lung disease
- Chronic heart disease
- Chronic kidney disease
- Chronic liver disease
- Chronic neurological disease
- Immunosuppression (whether caused by disease or treatment)
- Diabetes mellitus
- Patients who have had drug treatment for asthma within the past three years
- Pregnant women
- People aged 65 years and older
- Young children under five years old
It is vital that people in these higher risk groups get antivirals and start taking them as soon as possible – ideally within 48 hours of the onset of symptoms.
3. The Northern Ireland swine flu helpline number 0800 0514 142 is a freephone helpline for those who want more information about swine flu. Textphone 18001 0800 0 514 142.
4. The UK-wide flu information line on 0800 1 513 513 provides regularly updated advice on swine flu. This is also a freephone number.
5. Further information about swine flu can be found on the DHSSPS website or nidirect
6. The updated planning assumptions paper is available online.
7. Media enquiries to the DHSSPS Press Office on 028 9052 0579. Out of office hours contact the Duty Press Officer via pager number 076 9971 5440 and your call will be returned.
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