The Department of Justice (DOJ) today published Research and Statistics Bulletin 23/2016 ‘Adult and Youth Reoffending In Northern Ireland (2013/14 Cohort)’.It is an Official Statistics publication.
The report provides proven reoffending rates both for adults and for youths aged 17 and under who have been given a non-custodial disposal at court, a diversionary disposal or who have been released from custody during 2013/14.
This bulletin provides information on the one year proven reoffending rate for offenders who received a non-custodial disposal at court, a diversionary disposal or were released from custody during 2013/14. Information is presented in relation to the full cohort and also broken down by adults (those aged 18 and over) and youths (those aged 17 and under).
The main findings are;
Of the 27,069 people included in the 2013/14 cohort, 4,890 (18.1%) reoffended during the one year observational period (Appendix 1, Table 1a).
Of the 4,890 who reoffended, over two fifths (43.3%) committed their first reoffence within the first three months (Appendix 1, Table 2a).
In terms of offending history, 61.0% of the 27,069 had committed previous offences ranging from one to 514 distinct offences. Reoffending rates generally increased with the number of previous offences (Appendix 1, Table 5).
Overall, 11.6% of females and 19.7% of males had reoffended (Appendix 1, Table 7).
Base reoffending rates should not be used to measure the comparative success of different disposal types in their own right. The reason for this is that different offender characteristics and histories and different offence types will typically themselves be related to the type of disposal given. Therefore, offender profiles may differ substantially between the different disposal types. Subject to this necessary caveat (Appendix 1, Table 8):
The one year proven reoffending rate for those released from custody was 42.5%.
The one year proven reoffending rate for those who received a community disposal at court requiring supervision was 33.8%.
The one year proven reoffending rate for those who received a community disposal at court not requiring supervision was 18.1%.
The one year proven reoffending rate for those who received a diversionary disposal was 16.2%.
The highest reoffending rates were found amongst those who had committed a baseline offence in the ‘Burglary’ category (37.6%), followed by ‘Robbery’ (36.3%) (Appendix 1, Table 9).
ADULT COHORT
Of the 25,164 adult offenders included in the 2013/14 cohort, 4,353 (17.3%) committed a proven reoffence within a year following being released from custody, receiving a non-custodial disposal at court or receiving a diversionary disposal (Appendix 1, Table 1b).
Overall, 42.7% of the 4,353 who reoffended committed their first reoffence within the first three months of the observation period (Appendix 1, Table 2b).
In terms of offending history, 62.2% of the 25,164 had committed previous offences, ranging from 1 to 514 distinct offences. Reoffending rates largely increased with the number of previous offences (Appendix 1, Table 5).
Overall, 11.1% of adult females and 18.8% of adult males had reoffended (Appendix 1, Table 7).
Subject to the caveat about comparing base offending rates previously given (Appendix 1, Table 8):
The one year proven reoffending rate for adults released from custody was 41.5%.
The one year proven reoffending rate for adults who received a community disposal at court requiring supervision was 30.6%.
The one year proven reoffending rate for adults who received a community disposal at court not requiring supervision was 17.6%.
The one year proven reoffending rate for adults who received a diversionary disposal was 13.9%.
The highest reoffending rates were found amongst those who had committed a baseline offence in the ‘Burglary’ category (38.4%), followed by ‘Robbery’ (37.3%) (Appendix 1, Table 9).
YOUTH COHORT
Of the 1,905 young offenders included in the 2013/14 youth cohort, 537 (28.2%) committed a proven reoffence within a year following being released from custody, receiving a non-custodial disposal at court or receiving a diversionary disposal (Appendix 1, Table 1c).
Almost half (48.2%) of the 537 who reoffended committed their first reoffence within the first three months of the observation period (Appendix 1, Table 2c).
In terms of offending history, 44.9% of the 1,905 had committed previous offences ranging from one to 78 distinct offences. Reoffending rates increased with the number of previous offences (Appendix 1, Table 5).
Overall, 17.5% of females and 31.1% of males had reoffended (Appendix 1, Table 7).
Subject to the caveat about comparing base offending rates previously given (Appendix 1, Table 8):
Of the 35 youths released from custody, 31 committed a proven reoffence.
The one year proven reoffending rate for youths who received a community disposal at court requiring supervision was 56.8%.
The one year proven reoffending rate for youths who received a community disposal at court not requiring supervision was 56.3%.
The one year proven reoffending rate for youths who received a diversionary disposal was 24.2%.
The highest reoffending rates were found amongst those who had committed a baseline offence in the ‘Criminal Damage’ category (36.6%), followed by Burglary (33.9%) (Appendix 1, Table 9).
Notes to editors:
In 2013, the Department of Justice’s Analytical Services Group embarked on a project to revise the methodology used to calculate recidivism rates within Northern Ireland, bringing it more in line with established methodology in England and Wales. For a more detailed methodology refer to ‘Northern Ireland Reoffending Methodology: Methodology and Glossary Part 1’.
Any study of reoffending rates is prone to misunderstanding and misrepresentation if sufficient care is not taken to observe the caveats around each figure. For example, for both adult and youth cases here, the reoffending rates are highest for those released from custody and lowest for those given a diversionary disposal. Inevitably what needs to be taken into account in the interpretation of these figures is, most obviously, (a) the seriousness of the offence which led to the disposal in the first place and (b) the previous criminal history of the individual as a factor in the original disposal, together with a range of other criminogenic, demographic and, indeed, administrative/procedural issues. What these figures do not mean, of course, is that diversionary disposals are, irrespective of other factors, necessarily a more efficient deterrent to reoffending.
A range of statistical controls and procedures are therefore required before comparisons can meaningfully be made across different reoffending rates. A second methodology paper therefore provides a discussion on how overall reoffending rates can be compared, ‘Northern Ireland Reoffending Methodology: Methodology and Glossary Part 2 (Revised August 2015)’.
Official Statistics are produced in accordance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs and are produced free from any political interference. They are also subject to restrictions in terms of pre-release access.
The bulletin will be available in PDF format from either;
DOJ web-site www.justice-ni.gov.uk or
Analytical Services Group, Laganside House, Oxford Street, Belfast BT1 3LA. Email: statistics.research@justice-ni.x.gsi.gov.uk.
Press queries about this publication should be directed to the DOJ Press Office on telephone number 028 9052 6444.